
Fund Managers’ report
This time last year we were writing about the impact of the
Covid-19 pandemic, while at the interim stage in February, the
Russian invasion of Ukraine dominated headlines. While these
events are still front and centre, the attention has switched from
the human tragedy of a pandemic and war to the economic
implications that these events are having on inflation, interest
rates, currency and growth. In recent months equity and bond
markets have whipsawed around economic releases with
investors trying to ascertain whether the announcement lowers
inflation and interest rate expectations or increases the likelihood
of recession or both. Global central banks and governments are
walking a tightrope with the risk of a policy mistake rising by the
day. The recent turmoil in the UK following the government’s
mini budget is a prime example of how unconventional policy
can have a dramatic impact when the outlook is so uncertain.
The impact on equity and bond markets has been significant.
The S&P 500 has fallen over 19% in US dollar terms from its
peak in early January 2022 to the end of August 2022, while
the MSCI Europe has fallen 12.6% in euro terms. The FTSE
100 has proved more resilient, falling 0.4% in sterling terms as
the currency weakness and the abundance of companies with
overseas earnings, as well as oil and mining companies, was
supportive to share prices. In local currency terms, Asia Pacific
ex Japan fully participated in the downturn, falling 13.1% as the
export orientated economies of North Asia succumbed to the
weakness in demand from the western consumer.
Markets have continued to fall subsequent to our financial
year-end as prominent central banks have reaffirmed their
intention to do whatever it takes to suppress inflation.
From an Asian perspective, the pressure from inflation is not
so intense as regional economies have not faced the same
level of wage pressures or asset price inflation witnessed
in the west while the ‘Zero Covid’ policy in China has
suppressed regional demand. At the same time, the Federal
Reserve in the US, the ECB in Europe, the Bank of England
and the Bank of Japan have been accused of being asleep at
the wheel in terms of effective monetary policy to contain
inflation, the same cannot be said in Asia Pacific. Although
inflationary pressures have emerged in many countries across
the region, the gap between CPI
1
and interest rates is far
narrower than in developed markets suggesting that less work
needs to be done to get back to an even keel. The draconian
Covid-19 lockdown measures have made China a global
outlier with inflation below 3% and positive real interest rates.
It is notable that, as a result, China is the only major economy
loosening monetary policy which, if successful in stimulating
demand, will be a positive driver for the region.
In a reversal of last year’s trends, South Asian markets
massively outperformed their North Asian peers. The highly
valued growth sectors which had benefitted from ‘work from
home’ demand during the pandemic and companies exposed
to new innovations in electric vehicles and alternative energy,
struggled as investors reassessed weakening demand and
elevated valuations in a rising interest rate environment.
Korea fell 21% and Taiwan 11% while the technology sector
for the region as a whole was down 22%. Conversely the
opening-up of South Asian economies, a lack of technology
exposure and less sensitivity to rising energy and materials
prices helped Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand post gains
of 25%, 10.7% and 6.8% respectively. India was another
market that posted positive returns. Despite inflation above
the regional average, higher interest rates and a weakening
rupee, the domestic economy is performing well with the
property market showing signs of life after a thirteen year
downturn and retail sales 15% ahead of pre-Covid levels.
Once again, China was the worst performing market.
The economy continues to struggle to regain momentum weighed
down by liquidity and solvency problems in the property market,
a ‘Zero Covid’ policy with constant and ongoing lockdowns and
continued tension with the US that restricts the import and export
of certain goods. Government focus has turned towards
economic stimulus with interest rate cuts, property loosening
measures and a renewed focus on infrastructure investment, but
these are yet to bear fruit with the economy now expected to
grow by less than 3%, according to the latest World Bank
forecast – far below the original target of 5.5%.
At the sector level, energy was the standout performer rising
20% in local currency terms as oil and especially gas prices
rose significantly over the period. Utilities was the only other
sector in positive territory buoyed by the renewed focus on
energy security. The worst performing sectors were consumer
discretionary and technology. Consumption remained subdued
in North Asia by Covid-19 and in ASEAN
2
by the slow pace of
re-opening, while the internet sector in China and a worsening
demand outlook in developed markets for smart phones,
personal computers and laptops, hurt chip producers and
assemblers. Financials remained resilient, outperforming the
region, as rising interest rates should help improve profitability,
although South Asian banks performed better than their North
Asian counterparts.
The big move in currency markets has had a significant
impact on returns, corporate profitability and sentiment.
The strength of the US dollar during periods of heightened
volatility impacts risk assets and affects the flows to and from
asset classes. Historically a strong US dollar has been a
negative for emerging and Asian equity markets and this
dynamic has impacted returns over the last year despite Asia
Pacific being more economically resilient than its developed
market counterparts. Over the reporting period the US dollar
has appreciated by 5.2% compared to Asia Pacific currencies
and 18.4% compared to sterling. The relative weakness in the
Korean won, Taiwan dollar and Philippine peso, in particular,
materially impacted returns. Although the strength of the US
dollar has hampered returns from Asia Pacific, the weakness
of sterling has gone some way to offsetting this. Asian currencies
appreciated by almost 10% against sterling which has been
beneficial for the Company’s portfolio performance and
revenue generation. The chart on page 7 shows the returns
in different currencies to highlight the significant variation.
1
Consumer Price Index
2
ASEAN countries include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam
Henderson Far East Income Limited
Annual Report 2022
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