1
We expect that the theme of AI will remain omnipresent for the
next decade and beyond, providing a fertile ground for
investment opportunities. However, this area also highlights the
need to have valuation discipline, as it is at risk of share price
bubbles. At this stage, we note that the Hyperscalers are not only
continuing to spend significantly but are actually increasing their
capex intentions further. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and
Apple are expected to spend a combined $2trn in 2025, and over
the next 4 years the cumulative capex of the big technology
companies is expected to reach $9.3trn.
This is a figure that can appear colossal, but that highlights the
magnitude of the investment cycle triggered by the AI
opportunity that we are observing. For the time being,
Hyperscalers have been able to balance their drive to invest
more whilst returning cash to shareholders, all of which has
been funded by their strong cash flow generation. This makes
us comfortable that, unlike the bubble of 2000, the technology
companies that are investing heavily on this occasion have
solid balance sheets and are self-funded.
The emergence of DeepSeek at the start of 2025 brought
some volatility to the share prices of some of the Hyperscalers,
as the initial evidence of DeepSeek being significantly cheaper
than the models developed by the Hyperscalers led to
concerns of overspending. The markets, however, quickly
moved to a point that recognised that technology has always
grappled with disinflationary disruptive trends, as new
technologies emerge at a fraction of the previous costs. We
forecast AI to be on the cusp of triggering a major
technologically driven Industrial Revolution, unleashing a
major cycle of productivity enhancement for corporates,
innovation breakthroughs, and major disruption to any existing
businesses that fail to harness the AI opportunity. AI will
potentially enhance productivity. Whether companies benefit
from a boost in productivity through higher margins, or have to
pass these gains to their customers will depend on the
competitive dynamics of the industries in which they operate,
the new entrant risks, the disruption risks, and the pricing
power that they possess. All of these factors are important to
assess when analysing any business model, which is what we
do systematically when considering an investment opportunity
or reviewing an existing holding.
Overall, we calculate that the portfolio has c.31% of its assets
exposed to the AI theme, through companies such as Nvidia,
Microsoft, BE Semiconductors, ASML, Atlas Copco,
Cadence, Meta and Apple.
We are excited about the shape of the portfolio as it currently
stands. Our concentrated approach, focusing on our strongest
convictions that come out of our research process, leads to a
collection of companies (i) which have solid balance sheets;
(ii) which we are forecasting to grow their sales at a significantly
higher rate than listed companies in general; and (iii) which
have high returns on invested capital. These are the
characteristics that will help companies weather the upcoming
storms around a potentially deteriorating economic cycle, as a
result of the uncertainties brought by the tariff announcements
of 2 April 2025. Importantly, these are also companies that can
continue to innovate, to stay ahead of their competitors, and to
fend off disruption risks, in a decade ahead that will continue
to be disruptive for many industries.
Turning to valuations, while it is true that our portfolio, in
aggregate, trades at a higher PE ratio than the benchmark
index, any measure capturing the superior growth and returns
profile of our portfolio would conclude that it is attractively
valued when adjusting for this profile.
Our portfolio offers our shareholders a collection of companies
with higher growth than the index, in terms of sales, earnings
and cash flow, and a substantially higher ROIC, with a forecast
of a rapidly improving ROIC over time. This group of
investments should therefore in our view compound
attractively over the coming years, as the companies which we
hold keep delivering what we forecast them to be able to
deliver.
Finally, our team will move into the Franklin Equity Group in
2025. We will integrate with a larger group of investors
managing over £110bn and sharing the same investment
philosophy, focusing on quality growth opportunities. This will
give us access to more analytical resources, notably we will be
part of a team of 65 investment professionals, including a well-
resourced central research group with over thirty analysts from
whose knowledge, expertise and insights we will be able to
benefit. The group is based in San Mateo in Silicon Valley, and
the combined team also has offices in New York, London and
Edinburgh, which will permit us to extend our network of
corporates and leaders of industry within a region thriving on
innovation. This move is intended to help us to continue to
position the Company to focus on promising structural growth
opportunities. I look at this prospect with excitement and the
strong belief that we will be able to deliver the right outcome
for our shareholders as we complete our integration into the
broader Franklin Equity Group.
Zehrid Osmani
Portfolio Manager
17 April 2025