14 Annual Report 2022
Strategic Report
As noted earlier, reductions in India were used to fund
opportunities in both Indonesia and China. The macro-economic
situation in Indonesia looks increasingly favourable. The country
is one of the biggest beneficiaries of rising raw material prices
across the region with significant exports of coal, palm oil and
nickel (the latter potentially making Indonesia a regional hub for
electric vehicle components). These exports will support a strong
current account, (which is likely to be in a surplus of c.$50bn
by the end the of the year), and the rupiah. Combined with
an underleveraged banking system we believe the domestic
economy looks better placed than it has for many years. During
the period we purchased PT Astra International, Indonesia’s
leading automotive distributor and Bank Rakyat, arguably the best
micro finance company in Asia.
Looking to North Asia, it has been a torrid time for investors in
China. Regulatory clampdowns on the private sector, increasing
geopolitical tensions, Covid-19 lockdowns and problems in the
property market have led to a collapse in investor sentiment:
the MSCI China index is down nearly 50% since its 2021 peak,
while many Chinese companies listed in the USA have fallen
more than 70%.
Whilst we acknowledge many of these issues are serious, we
believe investors have become too pessimistic and significant
long-term value may be emerging. In the technology space in
particular, valuations appear extremely compelling (the core
ecommerce business of Alibaba Group for instance trades on
<5x P/E multiples), and in the long term many of the technology
regulations, such as those combating monopoly practices in the
internet sector, appear broadly sensible and arguably put China
at the forefront of internet regulations globally.
We made significant additions to China taking it from a 18.1%
position to 24.7%, making it the largest absolute country
exposure in the portfolio (albeit still a 5.2 percentage point relative
underweight). The most notable purchases were in the internet
sector where new purchases were made in Baidu.com, Meituan
and Alibaba Group, whilst we also added to a number of existing
holdings including JD.com. Exposure to the Chinese consumer
was increased with new holdings in Midea and Zhejiang Supor
Co, and we added to our green technology holdings including
LONGi Green Energy and Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.
Finally, we have been watching geopolitical developments in
Taiwan extremely closely, and it is perhaps here where the biggest
risks to the region and our portfolio lie. It seems inevitable that
China’s position on Taiwan will become an ever more divisive
topic with the West. China’s ambitions for Taiwan are clear –
reunification by 2049, but president Xi desires it much sooner.
Whilst military action is likely unviable within the next five years,
increased non-military coercion appears likely to ratchet over the
coming years. This comes at a time of already increased tensions
between China and the West, and it is notable that an increasingly
hawkish stance against China is the one topic American
politicians appear to agree on. The result is likely to be rising
Chinese and American tensions, and the world increasingly
splitting into two spheres of political, technological and economic
influences. We are considering the implications of such an
eventuality carefully.
Performance
We are long-term investors, running a high conviction growth
portfolio that is index agnostic. Performance will be volatile and
there will be short term periods when we underperform. It is
pleasing that over the past 5 years, the timescale on which we
believe our performance should be judged, the portfolio has
generated significant value for shareholders. However, against an
extremely challenging global backdrop, performance over the past
year, both in absolute and relative terms, was weak.
Soaring inflation and rising interest rates were major headwinds
for our growth-oriented investment style. This was particularly
pronounced in many of our higher growth companies, where the
net present value of the businesses lies in cash flows far into the
future and is greatly diminished by rising discount rates.
In the previous year our performance was helped significantly
by our broadening of the portfolio into more cyclical growth
companies. Unfortunately, as the likelihood of a global recession
increased during the year, compounded by numerous world
events including war in Ukraine, a European energy crisis,
Chinese lockdowns and increasing tensions over Taiwan, our
cyclical holdings were unable to offset the weakness elsewhere
in the portfolio.
By sector, the largest positive contributors to performance were
Consumer Discretionary, Energy and Industrials in that order.
Consumer Discretionary was led by Tata Motors (Indian
automotive company that owns the Jaguar Land Rover Brand)
which was also the single largest stock contributor to returns.
The company continues to see a strong turnaround in its domestic
automotive business, with passenger vehicle market shares now
nearing 15%, and commercial vehicles sales improving. Longer
term, it is the company’s investment in electric vehicles that could
be most valuable. The company has approximately 90% market
share of the domestic electric passenger car market, a strong EV
pipeline and is working with other Tata Group companies,
including Tata Power, Tata Chemicals, Tata Auto Components to
build an EV ecosystem called the ‘Tata UniEVerse’.
Elsewhere in the Consumer Discretionary sector, it was what we
did not own that had the most positive impact on our relative
performance. In particular, a significant underweight position in
Alibaba Group and not holding Tencent were both top five stock
contributors relative to the index. These companies continued to
be impacted in the first half of the period by the continued
regulatory clampdowns in China and broader negative investor
sentiment towards the country. After a very challenging few years,
we are starting to see opportunities emerge in China, and towards
the end of the period started to buy back into the Chinese internet
companies.
Energy was our second-best performing sector, led by the oil and
gas company, Jadestone Energy, which benefitted significantly
from the rising oil price while continuing to operate its assets
extremely efficiently. Industrials were led by Delhivery, which listed
at a premium to its unlisted valuation.