
Polar Capital Global Financials Trust plc • Annual Report and Financial Statements 2022
10
Outlook
As we look forward in early 2023, the global economy and
investors have a lot to deal with. The long list of headwinds
is well known – war and geopolitics, decades high inflation,
painful monetary tightening, structural labour market
challenges, energy supply shortages, China and its Covid
policy, to name a few. The predicament for policy makers and
investors determining how far, how fast and for how long, will
characterise the outcomes. It is not surprising that the most
common description of the near-term outlook is ‘uncertain’.
Initially not taking the inflation threats seriously, major central
banks ended 2022 trying to restore some severely damaged
credibility. In public statements that echoed the ‘whatever it
takes’ mantra that underlay their previous ‘too-easy-for-too-long’
monetary stance, central bankers insisted they were serious
about dealing with inflation. Even the Bank of Japan threw
in the towel on its particularly long standing easy monetary
policy stance. Despite this noise, concerns remain that inflation
in developed countries will remain above central bank targets
for a while, given stubbornly strong labour markets, and that
fiscal and monetary policy may be at odds with each other. This
concern can be seen in that, for the first time since 2014, the
2023 new year started with no sovereign bonds available at
negative yields. Only 2 years ago more than 4000 such bonds,
worth $18.4 trillion, were in negative yield territory.
Perceived as a cyclical sector with value characteristics,
the prospects of the financials sector are balanced in this
environment, as seen by its performance in 2022. The
largest sub-sector, banks, are typically seen as vulnerable
cyclicals in an economic slowdown. However, this traditional
view requires qualification. In part driven by regulatory and
accounting changes, banks in developed markets have better
quality balance sheets and are better provisioned with greater
capital and liquidity buffers than at any time since the global
financial crisis (GFC). Banks delivered these improvements
despite the huge hurdle of prolonged easy money and zero
interest rates. This hurdle is now firmly in the past, and,
although there are likely to be adjustment headaches for the
broad economy, banks are one of the clear winners from this
return to monetary policy normality.
The underlying recovery in the banking sector post the GFC has
yet to be reflected in valuations, especially in Europe. Despite
bumper profits, higher dividends and share buybacks, investors
have not re-rated banks. For now, they choose to focus on the
risk of greater non-performing loans despite evidence that the
system is generally well-provisioned and has capacity to grow
profits and provide further provisions given buoyant net interest
income. The emergence of the “shadow banking” sector since
the GFC which has pursued new lending aggressively, and the
somewhat anaemic loan growth which many established banks
have experienced in recent years are likely to now prove helpful
in mitigating the need for large provisions. On the balance of
risks, investors may be surprised by how well banks perform
through the expected economic slowdown.
Beyond banks, in other sub-sectors there are different
drivers for risk and performance, offering good performance
diversification and opportunity. Asset managers and
investment banks are vulnerable to further market corrections
and depressed capital market activity, while general insurers
have more stable earnings. Although troubled at the
moment, we anticipate that FinTech will respond positively to
any sign that interest rates have reached a peak and growth
is back on the agenda. In addition, the significant rise in
bond yields has re-opened another income opportunity for
the Company given its discretion to invest up to 10% of
its portfolio in fixed income securities. Overall, the breadth,
depth and diversity of the sector offer both risk management
potential and attractive return opportunities as the uncertain
headwinds overhanging the global economy are played out.
While the near-term uncertainty remains high, the portfolio
is balanced between cyclically exposed banks, both small and
large cap, and more defensive sectors such as non-life insurers
and fixed income securities. This puts the Company in a good
position to navigate further economic and political setbacks,
ready to turn more aggressive when the time is right. The
Board believes that once investors look through the current
negative market sentiment, the financials sector will be seen as
an attractive home for capital given its breadth and diversity of
opportunity, its relative valuations and its pro-cyclical correlation.
This year’s AGM, to be held on 30 March 2023 at Polar
Capital’s London offices, will be my last as Chairman and a
Director of your Company.
I was fortunate to join the Board of the Company at its launch
in 2013. Although the financial sector was still recovering from
the fallout from the global financial crisis, sufficient shareholders
saw its potential at launch for further rehabilitation. Many of
them remain shareholders today. At first our journey together
was relatively uneventful, only to become a rollercoaster as
the original fixed term end-of-life coincided with the outbreak
of Covid and the worst economic crisis since the War. Again,
despite it being the most difficult of times, enough shareholders
were willing to look through local difficulties and supported
the continuation of the Trust. Their loyalty and belief were
rewarded as, shortly afterwards, the Company experienced an
extraordinary period of growth in its share capital base with its
market cap quintupling over a two year period.
I step down from the Board as the sector faces a different menu
of headwinds. However, I am confident that the great strides
taken broadly across the sector to strengthen balance sheets,
risk management processes and operational efficiency will be
recognised in performance. I want to express my sincere thanks
to our shareholders who have supported our vision for the sector
at launch and during the Company’s rather eventful life.
Throughout my time as Chairman, I have been highly fortunate
Chairman’s Statement continued