
Macroeconomic Context and
Outlookfor SEEIT
Energy efficiency in the supply of and demand
for energy is fundamentally about reducing cost
and improving energy productivity. By reducing
losses traditionally associated with the supply of
and demand for energy, it is also a major source
of greenhouse gas emission reductions, energy
security and resilience.
It is important to understand that SEEIT is not
a merchant energy investor. Instead, it seeks to
invest in primarily long-term contracted income
streams with high-quality credit counterparties.
As such, it has limited exposure to energy prices
in its revenue streams and, wherever it does,
it seeks to mitigate these with contracted
arrangements for fuel supply or offtake contracts
for energy services. It is also not a highly
leveraged investment company with short-term
refinancing challenges. As such, it has limited
exposure to short-term interest rate movements
and availability of project finance. It is also
not a grid-connected, utility scale renewable
energy project investor. While it seeks to deploy
renewable energy technologies, it is not subject
to the same competitive dynamics or regulatory
uncertainties.
What SEEIT does do is concentrate on
investing in efficient energy services, generated
or applied close to or at the point of use.
SEEIT’s investments in decentralised energy
generation, as opposed to centralised or
grid-focused energy generation, are designed
to meet the needs of large end users of energy,
predominantly in the commercial, industrial,
public sector and transport markets. Its projects
seek to deliver energy services in the form of
power, heating and cooling where they are
needed at the highest practicable levels of
combined electrical and thermal efficiency.
Assuch, the majority of SEEIT’s projects deliver
energy services that are cheaper, cleaner and
more reliable than the grid. This is what makes
SEEIT’s decentralised energy generation projects
efficient and provides them with an enduring
competitive advantage and value even beyond
their initial contractedlives.
SEEIT also invests in projects that help to reduce
the amount of energy needed by end users to
produce the same level of work or economic
output. Most energy losses happen in the supply
of energy, mainly as heat losses at the point of
centralised generation, for example in gas-fired
power plants designed to create electricity for
the grid. However, large amounts of energy is
lost at the point of use, for example because
of sub-optimal mechanical and electrical
infrastructure such as lighting, heating, air
conditioning and controls. As such, SEEIT’s
projects seek to invest in the replacement or
upgrading of this infrastructure to reduce energy
demand and cut costs. Associated with demand
reduction, more efficient distribution of energy
services, such as district energy and electric
vehicle charging infrastructure, also creates
competitive advantages.
The combination of Efficient and Decentralised
Generation of Energy helps to define SEEIT’s
approach to energy investing and its competitive
advantage. We summarise this strategy and
approach with the acronym “EDGE”.
The macroeconomic context for energy efficiency
is important, both because of the contribution
that it can make to addressing systemic
energy-related challenges, and because of the
impact that the wider market conditions have on
the performance and value of SEEIT’s investment
portfolio.
Higher energy prices increase the advantage
and relative value of SEEIT’s energy services to
its clients and can help to extend project lives.
Extensions of major contracts within Primary
Energy and Oliva during the financial year are
good examples. Higher energy prices also tend to
support the business case for development and
construction of new energy efficiency projects
and, together with a pass-through of higher costs
of capital in a higher interest rate environment,
can improve returns on investment. Higher
rates of inflation can also help to increase those
contracted revenues in SEEIT’s portfolio that are
indexed to inflation.
Higher energy prices also feed into the price of
almost all goods and services in the economy,
thereby driving inflation and, ultimately, interest
rates. Energy prices have remained relatively
high and volatile, even after falling from recent
peaks in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine. Tensions and conflict in the Middle East
have added to supply and price uncertainty.
Increasing supplies and exports of oil and gas
from the United States, which on their own would
have reduced energy prices, have been offset
by the production cuts made by other major
energy producers and exporters, thus inflating
overall energy prices. Energy prices in turn affect
the prices of most goods and services, including
food (from fertilisers to production and shipping),
manufacturing and transport. Increasing energy
prices is therefore inflationary. Central banks
tend to raise interest rates to combat inflation.
As the Chair notes in his statement, because
interest rates and inflation fell from their peaks in
2022 and 2023, there were hopes in the market
of further falls during the first quarter of 2024.
The United States Federal Reserve indicated
the potential for three interest rate cuts in 2024,
which helped to set positive market expectations.
However, higher-than-expected inflation
numbers in the first months of the calendar year
curbed expectations and reversed much of the
reduction in longer-term yields. For instance,
the yield on ten-year US Treasuries reduced
from around 5% in October 2023 to around
3.8% in January2024, only to increase again to
around 4.3% by the end of March 2024. Inflation
proved stubborn, underpinned by energy prices,
production, and shipping costs and growing
levels of government debt, while the ramifications
of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East
continued to impact supply chains and global
capital markets.
These macroeconomic challenges tend to
increase costs, making energy efficiency projects
that reduce costs more attractive, urgent and
valuable. However, the financial implications
on SEEIT during the year translated into
higher discount rates applied to the cash flows
associated with SEEIT’s investments, which
have affected valuations. As such, we have been
focusing on what actions can be taken to improve
net asset value
APM
for shareholders irrespective
of broader macroeconomic conditions and what
steps can be taken to reduce the discount at
which the Company, like its peer group in the UK
investment trust market, is trading.
Strategy | Investment Manager: Markets and Outlook
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SEEIT Annual Report 2024|SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust plc