
Temple Bar Investment Trust Plc
Annual Report & Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2024
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The airline IAG was formed via the 2011 merger of flag-carriers British
Airways and Iberia. The company has a particularly strong foothold in
the highly profitable transatlantic market, with dominant positions
to North and South America. Given the quality of the management
team alongside a reinforced balance sheet, and formidable market
shares on profitable routes, we view the company’s valuation as
being highly attractive at less than 7 times 2024 earnings.
Direct Line is one of the UK’s leading insurance companies and although
it is a low growth business, up until 2022 it had been relatively stable.
In 2022, however, the company badly underestimated the level of claims
inflation that it would see, with the result that it was effectively
under-pricing its insurance and writing loss making contracts. Although
the long-term profit potential was unaffected, the share price duly halved,
creating an attractive entry point. In December, the company agreed to
be taken over by Aviva at a price that will result in a large profit for the Trust.
ABN Amro is a conservatively managed Dutch bank, which derives almost
all its profits from the Netherlands. Two thirds of group loans are
residential mortgages with an average loan to value of just 50%. The
company has little in the way of a financial markets’ exposure. The last two
years have been good for the bank and yet the shares are valued at around
6 times 2024 earnings, and they offer a dividend yield of around 9%.
Although Aberdeen Group is primarily known as an asset manager, the
company operates three different businesses: Investments (asset
management), Adviser, a B2B trading to platform, and Interactive
Investor (II), a direct-to-consumer trading platform. Both Aberdeen
Group ’s adviser and II businesses have strong positions in attractive
markets and in our view are worth around the current share price.
Although the Investments business is struggling, shareholders are
paying nothing for it and were it to achieve its profit potential, there
would in our view, be scope for the shares to double from today’s level.
These purchases were partly funded through the sale of shares in
International Distribution Services (previously Royal Mail), which agreed
to be taken over in the year.
The past financial year has seen a pickup in takeover activity in the
UK market. Why was this and has this had an impact on companies
in the portfolio? How have you responded to these bids?
2024 saw a continuation of the 2023 pickup in the number of takeover
bids for UK listed companies as both corporate and private equity
investors (most often from overseas) sought to take advantage of the
low valuations available in the UK stock market. Four of the Trust’s
holdings were subject to takeover bids in the year, in each case at a
significant premium to the prevailing share price. The premiums offered
ranged between 40% and 70% and the bids thereby crystallised
significant value for the Trust’s shareholders. Our response to a takeover
bid is always to compare the bid price to our view of the long-term value
of the company and turn it down where we deem it to be inadequate.
We are prepared to be vocal in such instances. This was the case in
respect of Elliott Capital’s bid for Currys, which despite being at over a
40% premium to the prevailing share price, in our view, materially
undervalued the company. Here we put out a statement saying that the
67p bid was inadequate. At the time of writing the shares were priced at
around 90p. Given the continued low valuation of the Trust’s portfolio,
we would not be surprised to see further bids for its holdings in 2025.
The UK stock market continues to be perceived as relatively
unattractive when compared with other equity markets. Do you
share this view?
It is certainly true to say that the UK stock market continues to be
relatively out of favour with investors. The easiest measure of investor
sentiment, perhaps, is valuation and following another year of relative
underperformance, the valuation differential between the US stock
market and the UK stock market widened further in 2024 from already
elevated levels.
As we have stated previously, there is much historical evidence to show that
the best predictor of long-term future investment return is starting valuation,
with lowly valued companies being priced to enjoy elevated investment
returns in the future. Some will point out that US companies have grown
profits more rapidly in the last decade or so and that therefore, the US stock
market premium is justified. Whilst it may be the case that profits have grown
more rapidly in the US, investors should reflect on the fact that by far the
largest portion of the excess return that has come from US stocks, has been
due to an absolute and relative re-rating of those profit streams. This is
significant in that a re-rating is not a sustainable form of investment return
unless you believe that those profit streams will continue to re-rate indefinitely.
It is important to remember that as valuations rise, so the level of
expectation incorporated into share prices increases and the better the
companies must perform operationally to satisfy those lofty expectations.
The consensus view today is that American ‘exceptionalism’ will continue,
suggesting to us that expectations are already high and that the potential
for disappointment is great. The UK stock market in contrast contains a
good number of neglected companies, where the bar of expectation is
much lower, and where the likelihood of positive surprise is much greater.
Accordingly, we believe that the long-term outlook for investment returns
in the UK stock market is better.
You have the ability to invest up to 30% of the portfolio in companies
listed outside the UK. To what extent do you use this flexibility and
how do investment opportunities within and outside the UK compare?
The ability to invest a portion of the Trust’s portfolio outside of UK listed
companies is valuable and serves two purposes. First it enables us as
portfolio managers to access sectors of the stock market which we
believe to be undervalued but which are not well represented in the UK
share index. An example here is automotive manufacturers and the
Trust has shareholdings in Honda and Stellantis. Second, it enables us
to partially diversify the stock specific risk of holding a large a position
in a sector, again where we believe that the sector is undervalued. An
example here is the Energy sector, where the Trust holds a position in
Total Energies alongside its holdings in Shell and BP.
How is the portfolio currently positioned and what is your outlook
for the year ahead?
The Trust’s portfolio in aggregate is valued at around 9 times 2024
estimated earnings and it therefore continues to be priced for attractive
future returns. Shareholders might ask themselves how it is that a
portfolio that has appreciated quite markedly in 2024 can still be valued
on such a low multiple of profits. The answer is that whilst there has been
some growth in earnings (as the environment for corporate profits has
been relatively good), a significant portion of the Trust’s return has come
through the beneficial effect of companies using cash flows to buy back
cheap shares. It is worth reflecting on the fact that a company that trades
on a price earnings ratio of 10x, which grows its profits by 5% and uses half
of its profits to buy back stock, delivers earnings per share growth of
10%. In this example, the share price would have to rise by 10% in order
maintain a constant price earnings ratio. If this company were to return
the other half of its profits as a 5% dividend, then assuming no change in
the share rating, the annual total return to the shareholders would be
15%. This serves to make the important point that you don’t need that
ever elusive re-rating of the UK stock market to enjoy excellent returns
from UK equities. Over one half of the companies in the Trust’s portfolio
are or have been buying back stock in 2024 and these buy backs have
undoubtedly been a key driver of portfolio returns.
As the portfolio managers on the Trust, we see it as our job to take
advantage of the excessively low valuations caused by sentiment
driven short-term selling for the long-term benefit of the Trust’s
shareholders. However, if the Trust’s shareholders are going to take
advantage of the short termism of others, they need to be long term
in their thinking. The ability to be truly long term is the biggest
advantage that one can have in the stock market today, and we are
optimistic that we can continue to use this advantage to generate
excess investment returns for the Trust. But the path will not always
be smooth, and there will be periods of underperformance. The
prize is great for the long-term value investor, but shareholders must
recognise that the road will be bumpy at times and thus ensure that
their expectations are correctly set.
Ian Lance and Nick Purves
Redwheel
20 March 2025