
54 CHESNARA ANNUAL REPORT & ACCOUNTS 2021
1. Maintain the group as a going concern
After making appropriate enquiries, including consideration of the emerging
potential impact of the invasion of Ukraine and the associated sanctions that have
been imposed upon Russia as a consequence and, to a lesser extent, the reducing
impact of COVID-19 on the group’s operations and financial position and prospects,
the directors confirm that they are satisfied that the company and the group
have adequate resources to continue in business for the foreseeable future.
Accordingly, they continue to adopt the going concern basis in the preparation of
the financial statements.
In performing this work, the board has considered the current solvency and cash
position of the group and company, coupled with the group’s and company’s
projected solvency and cash position as highlighted in its most recent business
plan and Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) process. These processes
consider the financial projections of the group and its subsidiaries on both a base
case and a range of stressed scenarios, covering projected solvency, liquidity,
EcV and IFRS positions. In particular these projections assess the cash generation
of the life insurance divisions and how these flow up into the Chesnara parent
company balance sheet, with these cash flows being used to fund debt
repayments, shareholder dividends and the head office function of the parent
company. Further insight into the immediate and longer-term impact of certain
scenarios, covering solvency, cash generation and Economic Value, can be found
on page 45 under the section headed ‘Capital Management Sensitivities’. The
directors believe these scenarios will encompass any potential future impact of
the Ukraine crisis and COVID-19 on the group, as Chesnara’s most material
ongoing exposure to both potential threats are any associated future investment
market impacts. Underpinning the projections process outlined above are a
number of assumptions. The key ones include:
– We do not assume that a future acquisition needs to take place to make
this assessment.
– We make long-term investment return assumptions on equities and fixed
income securities.
– The base case scenario assumes exchange rates remain stable, and the impact
of adverse rate changes are assessed through scenario analysis.
– Levels of new business volumes and margins are assumed.
– The projections apply the most recent actuarial assumptions, such as mortality
and morbidity, lapses and expenses.
The group’s strong capital position and business model provides a degree of comfort
that although the Ukraine crisis and COVID-19 both have the potential to cause
further significant global economic disruption, the group and the company remain
well capitalised and has sufficient liquidity. As such we can continue to remain
confident that the group will continue to be in existence in the foreseeable future.
The information set out on pages 43 to 44 indicates a strong Solvency II position as
at 31 December 2021 as measured at both the individual regulated life company
levels and at the group level. As well as being well capitalised the group also has a
healthy level of cash reserves to be able to meet its debt obligations as they fall due
and does not rely on the renewal or extension of bank facilities to continue trading.
This position has been further enhanced in early 2022, when the company
announced the successful pricing of its inaugural debt capital markets issuance of
£200m Tier 2 Subordinated Notes, the net proceeds of which will be used for
corporate purposes, including investments and acquisitions. The group’s
subsidiaries rely on cash flows from the maturity or sale of fixed interest securities
which match certain obligations to policyholders, which brings with it the risk of
bond default. In order to manage this risk, we ensure that our bond portfolio is
actively monitored and well diversified. Other significant counterparty default risk
relates to our principal reinsurers. We monitor their financial position and are
satisfied that any associated credit default risk is low.
Whilst there was some short-term operational disruption from dealing with the
restricted operating environment in light of COVID-19, our assessment has
shown that both our internal functions and those operated by our key outsourcers
and suppliers adapted to these restrictions and do not cause any issues as to our
going concern.
2. Assessment of viability
The board assesses that being financially viable includes continuing to pay an
attractive and sustainable level of dividends to investors and meeting all other
financial obligations, including debt repayments over the 3-year business
planning time horizon. The board’s assessment of the viability of the group is
performed in conjunction with its going concern assessment and considers both
the time horizons required for going concern, and the slightly longer-term
timelines for assessing viability. The assessment for viability also considers the
same key financial metrics as for assessing going concern, being solvency, cash,
EcV and IFRS, both on base case and stressed scenarios.
As reported in the going concern section, the group has remained well capitalised
throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, and any operational disruption in moving to
a largely remote working model in the short term was minimal. In light of this, should
the COVID-19 situation be with us in society over the whole viability period, we
do not believe that this factor would cause any concern as to our overall viability.
3. Viability statement
Based on the results of the analysis above, the directors have a reasonable
expectation that the company will be able to continue in operation and meet its
liabilities as they fall due over the 3-year period of their assessment.
4. Assessment of prospects
Our longer-term prospects are primarily considered through the conclusions
drawn from our annual business planning process, updated for key events that
may occur in-between business plans.
The business plans include underlying operational deliverables, an assessment of
the business model and the financial consequences of following those plans. As
part of this process we also consider the principal risks and uncertainties that the
group faces (see pages 57 to 62) and how these might affect our prospects.
An assessment of our prospects has been shown below, updated for our
consideration of the impact of the Ukraine crisis and to a lesser extent COVID-19.
This has been structured around our three strategic objectives:
Value from in-force book: The group has c876,000 policies in force at
31 December 2021. These are generally long-term policies, and the associated
cash flows can, at an overall portfolio level, be reasonably well predicted on base
case and stressed scenarios. The group is well capitalised at both a group and
divisional level and we have high quality assets backing our insurance liabilities.
Just as equity markets had recovered from the impact of COVID-19, the
worsening situation in the Ukraine has caused equity prices to fall. Whilst this
may turn out to be a temporary situation, sustained depressed market values do
adversely impact fee income streams and therefore if markets fall further then
profitability prospects reduce. Similarly, further reductions in yields would adversely
impact our prospects. Temporary market volatility is however a natural feature of
investment markets and our financial model is well positioned to withstand
difficult conditions without creating any permanent harm to the longer-term
profitability prospects.
Acquisition strategy: The outlook and prospects of continuing to deliver against
this strategic objective are covered on page 42. We see no reason to expect that
the Ukraine crisis or COVID-19 will have a long-term impact on the availability of
acquisition opportunities. Indeed, during the year we announced two acquisitions
in the year, one in the UK and one in the Netherlands. We also completed another
small Dutch acquisition in 2021 which has resulted in a £2.5m EcV gain. Waard
continue to build a useful market position as a company who are able and willing
to acquire books that are sub-scale for the vendors business model. Whilst we
maintain our ambition to complete larger deals, the prospects from a steady flow
of well-priced smaller acquisitions should not be underestimated. The financial
position of the group continues to support financing deals through the use of our
own resources or by raising debt, however in the short-term equity funding
would likely be less attractive.
Value from new business: Chesnara is in a fortunate position in that its prospects
do not fundamentally rely on the ability to sustain new business volumes. New
business levels have contributed a small amount of extra value during the year
despite the ongoing challenges as a result of COVID-19 and we believe there remains
realistic upside potential as we move into 2022.
Our business fundamentals such as assets under management, policy volumes,
new business market shares and expenses have all proven resilient to the impact
of the Ukraine crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. This, together with the positive
assessment of our core strategic objectives and a line of sight to positive
management actions over the planning period, leaves us well positioned to
deliver ongoing positive outcomes for all stakeholders.
STRATEGIC REPORT
OUTCOMES FROM IMPLEMENTING OUR FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT CONTINUED