KERNEL HOLDING S.A.
8A, Boulevard Joseph II
L-1840 Luxembourg
R.C.S. Luxembourg B 109173
Notes to the annual accounts for the year ended 30 June 2025
Annual
accounts for the year ended
30 June 2025
The accompanying notes form an integral part of the annual accounts
Note 17 – Operating environment (continued)
As of June 2025, annual inflation declined to 14.3% (14.1% as of July 2025), with consumer prices influenced by adverse
weather conditions affecting fruit and berry harvests, higher meat prices due to increased production costs and reduced
livestock numbers, global oil price increases, and depreciation of the hryvnia against the euro. Strong consumer demand
and elevated costs for raw materials and labor also contributed. While headline inflation exceeded the April
macroeconomic forecast, the National Bank of Ukraine (the “NBU”) expects inflationary pressures to ease in the coming
months, supported by monetary policy measures.
Economic growth remains constrained by intensified air attacks and the destruction of industrial facilities, infrastructure, and
housing. The NBU projects real GDP growth of 2.1% for the 2025 calendar year, with recovery dependent on the course of
the war. Under the baseline scenario, the economy is expected to gradually return to normal functioning, with GDP growth
of 2%–3% projected for 2026–2027. A faster normalization would support higher private investment and consumption,
potentially increasing GDP growth to 3%–3.5%.
Agricultural output in 2025 has been adversely affected by frosts and heavy rains between April and July, which reduced
yields of grains, oilseeds, and other crops. Rapeseed harvests suffered severe frost damage in several western and central
regions, leading to near-total losses in some areas. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, total
grain production is forecast to decline by up to 10% and oilseed production by up to 5% compared with the 2024 period.
In the first half of 2025, Ukraine continued to secure substantial external financing to address the consequences of Russian
aggression. International support covered social and humanitarian expenditures, allowing domestic fiscal resources to
remain focused on security and defense. During this period, the Ministry of Finance raised USD 22 billion in external funding,
including USD 17.6 billion under the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration for Ukraine (ERA) initiative, which provides loans
to be repaid from future revenues of immobilized Russian assets. In July 2025, an additional EUR 1 billion was secured
from the EU. Other key programs included the Ukraine Facility, the Extended Fund Facility, and related initiatives. Since the
beginning of the full-scale war, Ukraine’s international partners have committed more than USD 137 billion in budget support.
As of July 2025, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to USD 43.0 billion, a 4.5% decrease from June 2025,
driven by NBU foreign exchange interventions and external debt repayments. Despite the decline, reserves remain
sufficient to cover 4.7 months of future imports, supporting financial and exchange rate stability.
To enhance financial stability, the National Bank of Ukraine (“NBU”) introduced a managed exchange rate flexibility
regime in October 2023. This approach, with interventions limited to smoothing volatility, has helped reduce foreign
exchange imbalances, support reserve accumulation, and strengthen the resilience of Ukraine’s economy to external
influence.
On 24 July 2025, the NBU kept its key policy rate unchanged at 15.5% (compared to 13.0% in July 2024) to support
foreign exchange market stability, anchor inflation expectations, and guide inflation towards its 5% target. The NBU
noted that headline inflation may temporarily rise, while core inflation is expected to continue declining, with overall
inflation projected to return to a downward trajectory in the coming months.
As of the date of issue of these annual accounts, the war continues. The ongoing aggression by the Russian Federation
increases the risk of a long-term reduction in Ukraine’s economic potential, particularly due to the loss of population,
territory, and production capacity. The speed of economic recovery will depend on the duration and intensity of the
conflict. Prolonged high-intensity warfare would prevent the economy from returning to normal functioning and delay
inflation returning to target levels.
Note 18 – Going concern
The Group continues to operate in a highly challenging environment caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,
which began on 24 February 2022. Despite these circumstances, Kernel Group has demonstrated resilience and
operational adaptability. Management has implemented measures to safeguard employees and assets while ensuring
continuity of operations.