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2021 OUTLOOK


2021 is expected to be another challenging year, no different from 2020, due to the continuing impact of COVID-19 pandemic. The uncertainties lying ahead and the consequences of the measures taken by the governments on economic conditions and consumer spending will have a critical impact on our business performance and may lead us to revisit our assumptions during the year.

Consolidated sales volume is expected to grow by low-to-mid-single digits

Total Beer volume is to grow by low-single digits

International beer sales volume is expected to grow by low-single digits. Russian beer sales volume is to grow by low-single digits cycling a high base, while outperforming the market. The competitive environment is expected to continue to be tough. CIS beer volumes to increase by mid-single digits outpacing the respective markets' performance.

Turkey beer sales volume is expected to be grow low-single digits despite low comparables in 2020 under the assumption of continuing impact of pandemic with especially in the first half of the year. Reopenings in on-trade and recovery of tourism is foreseen to support Turkish beer market starting from the second half of the year.

Consolidated Soft Drinks sales volume to grow in the range of 4% to 6% on a consolidated basis leveraging the vast potential of our markets and our diverse, balanced portfolio while cycling the 2020 base.

Turkey soft drinks: Low-single digit growth

International soft drinks: High-single digits growth

Consolidated Net Sales Revenue is expected to grow by mid-teens on FX-Neutral basis, with the contribution of both business lines

Total Beer revenue is expected to grow by low-teens on FX-Neutral basis

International Beer Revenue is expected to increase by high-single digit on FX-Neutral basis, driven by higher volumes, price increases and portfolio mix

Turkey Beer Revenue is expected to grow by low-twenties driven by the volume growth,  price increases and favorable mix

Total Soft Drinks revenue: With our focus on revenue growth management, we expect consolidated fx-neutral net sales revenue growth to be in the high teens

Consolidated EBITDA Margin is expected to decline slightly

Total Beer EBITDA margn is expected to decline about 200 bps as a result of accelerated marketing and selling investments to drive consumption and volume growth in 2021, cycling a high base in 2020.

International Beer EBITDA margn is expected to decline about 200 bps

Turkey Beer EBITDA margn is expected to be flat to slightly negative

Total Soft Drinks EBITDA margn: The strong margn expansion achieved in 2020 was to a certain extent due to one off factors like cutting of DME expenses, but also as a result of more sustainable measures such as leaner SKU portfolio and strict financial management. With growth in volumes, higher net sales revenue per unit case and our frugal mindset, we expect EBITDA margn to be flattish in 2021 vs 2020.

Capex: As a percentage of sales high single digits on a consolidated basis, in line with normal capex spending pattern

FCF: Continue to deliver strong FCF, yet lower compared to 2020 due to the cycling a very low net working capital.

2021 outlook reflects management expectations and are based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties including but not limited to macro-economic, financial, geopolitical and political risks, which could materially impact the Comp any's actual performance.