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Third quarter performance has been much above our initial anticipations in all fronts although the operating environment has not been any easier. Our strategy of finding the balance between volume / profitability together with effective use of hedging instruments enabled us to complete the most important period of the year with very solid results. In Türkiye beer, the performance through the season has been above of our expectations. In Russia, expected demand pressure has started later than our initial plans while the pressure is expected to extend into last quarter. With that, we expect the volume performance in last quarter of the year to be weaker especially in our international beer operations also due to cycling a strong base in 4Q2021. Also, we see higher cost environment and more opex spending in the last quarter which may weigh on profitability margns. Yet, the strong results achieved in 3Q gave us the confidence to make further improvements in our beer group outlook which are also reflected into Anadolu Efes' guidance.
As a result,
Consolidated sales volume is expected to grow low-to-mid single digits (previously: grow by low-single digits)
Total Beer volume is expected to decline by low-teens ( previously: mid-teens decline ) on a reported basis with better than expected results achieved in Türkiye beer in 3Q while excluding the impact of Ukraine our volume decline expectation is at low-single digits. (previously: mid-single digit decline)
Consolidated Net Sales Revenue is expected to grow by low-fourties on FX-Neutral basis (previously: mid-thirties growth)
Total Beer revenue is expected to grow by low-to-mid-twenties on FX-Neutral basis due to stronger than anticipated Ruble against hard currencies and strong Türkiye beer volumes (previously: high-teens growth)
Consolidated EBITDA Margin is to stay flat to 100 bps expansion (previously: stay flat)
Total Beer EBITDA margn is expected to improve around 400 bps versus 2021 on the back of better operating leverage as a result of strong topline performance (previously: flat to 100 bps expansion versus 2021)
Capex: As a percentage of sales high single digits on a consolidated basis (no change)
Free Cash Flow generation will be comparable to previous year. Although a significant improvement is expected in absolute operational profitability there will be increased capex spending due to longer lead times and increased stocking due to pre-buying in the last quarter of the year.
2022 outlook reflects management expectations and is based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties including but not limited to macro-economic, financial, geopolitical and political risks, which could materially impact the Company's actual performance.
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