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After cycling a few consecutive years of challenges, we are heading to another tough one. Geopolitical concerns, energy crisis, inflationary pressures, coupled with potential weakening of consumer demand are the major headwinds that will impact our performance and financials. On top of this, commodity and raw material price volatilities together with FX volatilities are other factors that we address to manage our risks for 2023.

Russian beer operations have shown resilient performance until September where 2022 has been an exceptional year in terms of pricing, operational profitability as well cash generation. However, 2023 will be a very challenging year due to competitive pressures and necessity to make further price increase to cover costs escalations. Consumers' price acceptance is concerning which will inevitably affect our pricing ability. Therefore, we expect some normalization in our Russian EBITDA margn compared its extraordinarily high level in 2022 yet, it will still be much higher than its level in FY2021.

In Türkiye, the year started with strong volume performance yet political uncertainties, high inflationary environment coupled with the potential impact of devastating earthquake makes us cautious for 2023.

In Ukraine, we expect our Chernihiv brewery to be operational during the year as long as security situation allows us. Also, we expect to open the brewery in Mykolaiv before the season.

In beer group, the increase in COGS/HL in 2023 is still expected to be high. In the framework of our risk management program we are taking proactive measures in order to limit the impact of these cost increases either through early procurement programs or with financial hedging mechanisms for our commodity and FX exposure. We are aiming to cover the impact of these cost pressures, with timely price increases and proactive revenue growth management initiatives as well as smart spending approach.

Therefore, our expectations for FY2023 are as follows:


Consolidated sales volume is expected to grow by low-to-mid single digit

Total Beer volume is to decline by low-single digit. We expect our international beer operations to decline by low-single digits and Türkiye beer operations to decline by low-to-mid-single digit.

Consolidated Soft Drinks sales volume to grow mid to high-single digit

Türkiye soft drinks: Flat to mid-single digit growth

International soft drinks: High single to low double-digit growth in the international operations

Consolidated Net Sales Revenue is expected to grow by low-thirties on FX-Neutral basis

Total Beer revenue is to grow by high-teens on FX-Neutral basis

Total Soft Drinks revenue is expected to grow by high 40s to low 50s percentage on FX-Neutral basis

Consolidated EBITDA Margin is expected to decline around 100-200 bps

Total Beer EBITDA margn is expected to decline around 300 bps

Total Soft Drinks EBIT margn : Flat to a slight expansion compared to last year

Capex: As a percentage of sales high single digits on a consolidated basis

Free Cash Flow generation will be under pressure starting from the beginning of the year mainly due to phasing of some payables in international beer operations to following year. If these payables were done in 2022, we would expect a higher level of cash flow in 2023. Cash flow in 2023 will also be impacted by incremental increase in capex spending which were suspended in 2022.

*2023 outlook reflects management expectations and is based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties including but not limited to macro-economic, financial, geopolitical and political risks, which could materially impact the Company's actual performance.

**The 2023 Outlook above includes Anadolu Efes Beer Group and Soft Drinks Group operations and does not include the performance of AEP Anadolu Etap Penkon Gıda ve Tarım Ürünleri Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. ("Anadolu Etap Tarım") as per our announcement dated 26.01.2023.