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We revisited our outlook for FY2023, following strong first half results predominantly in our beer operations. Volumes in Türkiye beer operations have significantly improved and outpaced our initial expectations for the first half yielding an improvement for full year expectations. In the meanwhile, we continue to be cautious for second half of the year especially for the last quarter on the back of high base of last year as well as macro-economic factors like sticky inflation and declining consumer confidence in the country. International beer volumes were also above expectations, demand being more resilient than our primary anticipations especially in Russia.
Solid margn performance in beer group in the period was related to modest increases in COGS/hl despite strong pricing while it was also attributable to our hedging mechanisms in place utilized to mitigate the impact of yearly cost increases. Yet, we expect second half beer group margns to soften mainly driven by the normalized comparables in rev/hl versus last year.
In light of these, we cautiously improve our beer group and Anadolu Efes guidance for FY2023 while keeping soft drinks' expectations intact.
We now expect;
Consolidated sales volume is to grow by mid-single digit ( previously: grow by low-to-mid single digit )
Total Beer volume is to grow by low-single digit versus last year ( previously: decline by low-single digit ). We expect both our international beer and Türkiye beer operations' volume to grow by low-single digits compared to 2022.
Consolidated Soft Drinks sales volume to grow mid to high-single digit (no change)
Türkiye soft drinks: Flat to mid-single digit growth (no change)
International soft drinks: High single to low double-digit growth in the international operations (no change)
Consolidated Net Sales Revenue is expected to grow by high-thirties on FX-Neutral basis ( previously: grow by low-thirties on FX-Neutral basis )
Total Beer revenue is to grow by low-twenties on FX-Neutral basis ( previously: high-teens on FX-Neutral basis )
Total Soft Drinks revenue is expected to grow by high 40s to low 50s percentage on FX-Neutral basis (no change)
Consolidated EBITDA Margin is expected to decline around 100 bps ( previously: decline around 100-200 bps )
Total Beer EBITDA margn is expected to decline around 100 bps ( previously: decline around 300 bps )
Total Soft Drinks EBIT margn : Flat to a slight expansion compared to last year (no change)
Capex: As a percentage of sales high single digits on a consolidated basis (no change)
Free Cash Flo Postponed payments continues to support FCF generation this year as well, leading to improved expectations for year-end. Yet, FY2023 cash generation will be slightly below than its historically highest level achieved in FY2022.
*FY2023 outlook reflects management expectations and is based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties including but not limited to macro-economic, financial, geopolitical and political risks, which could materially impact the Company's actual performance.
**The FY2023 Outlook above includes Anadolu Efes Beer Group and Soft Drinks Group operations and does not include the performance of "Anadolu Etap Tarım" and "Anadolu Etap İçecek".
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