10
Portfolio Manager’s Report (continued)
Portfolio Commentary
This year’s investment activity eased on the hyperactivity of cash deployment in 2023, intentionally building up cash
balances between the election and the budget to 20%, before deploying into a new core holding (Synectics) and some
dynamic opportunities in the nursery (Audioboom, Likewise). This meant that on 31 December 2024, the Company
was again ‘fully invested’ into 10 core investments and 11 nursery holdings which represented 95% of the portfolio. A
detailed description of the core investments in the top ten is provided overleaf. The Portfolio Manager exited Team17
(+£509k), EKF Diagnostics (+£144k) and Speedy Hire (+£152k) early, but profitably, over the summer as analysis of the
new UK government’s likely impact on the AIM market, yields and economic activity, threatened our thesis and returns
on these investments. All three share prices remain materially below exit levels and this was a good example of the
Investment Committee (“IC”) process adding value, with sell decisions emerging from a post-election quarterly
portfolio review. However, there were two further noteworthy exits that crystallised investment losses; RBG Holdings
(-£900k) and Ebiquity (-£428k).
Both were thesis breaches that led the Portfolio Manager to withdraw capital from these companies in the interest of
protecting the remaining value. Lessons have been learned by the IC with each and factored into processes going
forward. Efforts combined to generate investment gains of £5.7m through the year and an invested portfolio that is
tracking a 54.3% gross IRR.
We have an active and engaged approach to investee companies, and shareholders can expect us to be working hard
to support profitable outcomes on our investments. Some of these workstreams are shared below. Pleasingly some
of the 2023 vintage investments such as Angling Direct are starting to show real impact from our high-touch style that
is directly creating value for all shareholders including Onward. The portfolio enters 2025 with an intentional skew to
international earnings (Transense, Windward, Synectics, MPAC, Audioboom); global earnings exposure with a London
multiple makes for compelling price-to-earnings-growth opportunities we believe. Domestic earnings exposure has
been reserved for resilient names with strong market positions (Angling Direct, Michelmersh, Likewise, Smiths News,
Alumasc) or where such headwinds are more than compensated for by the valuation (The Mission Group, React
Specialist Cleaning, Springfield Properties).
MPAC Group plc (MPAC LN) – Date of first investment September 2023
MPAC Group plc (“MPAC”) is a designer and assembler of automated robotic packaging lines with a strong foothold in
defensive sectors globally, and a first-mover advantage in clean energy assemblies (EV batteries), due to its historic
specialism in ‘side-loading’. After a difficult 2022/23 that was worsened by global supply chain disruption, the business
is on a strong footing under new management with a clear plan for earnings growth that we had been able to purchase
initially on an EV/EBITDA of c.2.5x, and subsequently (with higher conviction added to) at multiples closer to 5x and 6x
in 2024 – all at a discount to the 10x (or higher) multiples where private equity transactions take place. New CEO Adam
Holland (referenced extensively at JCB & Rolls Royce) identified levers to recover margins to 10%+ (which is now
complete) and grow earnings with an expanding sales team and abated supply chain headwinds of 2022/3.
At the point of first investment, we had modelled 12.5% EBIT margins by 2028 but now think this can be beaten
materially at much nearer 15%. This first stage has more than doubled the value of MPAC as we anticipated it would
in our 2023 report. We are pleased to report a very strong IRR of 176% over the 15-months since we invested. MPAC
has been a great example of our screening process identifying emerging change in a company. There remains a longer-
term opportunity in battery casing that if delivered could add significantly to returns beyond our base case, but we
only ascribe hope value at this stage.
We are actively engaging with the company on a number of key initiatives including a pension ‘buy-out’ (as it is now
in surplus) incentive arrangements for the new senior leadership team, board composition, M&A strategies and
investor communications. We were delighted to see the company follow up with a strong trading update in January
2025 and are excited for what the integration of recent international expansion offers this year and beyond. This and
further catalyst execution combined with sales and margin growth offer further material upside potential in line with
private equity backed peers which we monitor.