
Portfolio Manager’s Commentary
Continued
Outlook
The potential for tariffs under a second Trump administration
has been widely discussed, but the proposed 46% tariff rate
is unexpectedly high and has caught many by surprise. While
there may be room for negotiation toward a lower rate in the
near future, the announcement has nonetheless impacted
investment activities and import-export dynamics in Vietnam.
In response, the Vietnamese government is accelerating
efforts to shift the economy toward more domestically
driven growth, supported by public investment and proactive
government policies, rather than relying heavily on external
demand. In addition, a range of support packages is expected
to be introduced to cushion the impact of a potential global
trade war.
Notwithstanding
external
challenges,
Vietnam’s
macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong, positioning the
country well for the coming year. Inflation remains controlled,
exports continue to grow at double-digit rates, and a robust
trade surplus supports a strong current account position.
Public debt remains low at just 37% of GDP, providing ample
fiscal flexibility.
Over the past decade, Vietnam has consistently delivered
annual GDP growth of 6.5–7.0%. The government is targeting
GDP growth of 8% or higher in 2025, with ambitions for double-
digit GDP growth from 2026 to 2030. These targets have now
become more challenging since the US tariff announcements,
but the ongoing structural reforms should help provide the
necessary framework to sustain the government’s 5-year
plan from 2026 onward.
For the equity markets, an upgrade for Vietnam to FTSE
Secondary Emerging Market (EM) status is likely in 2025,
with key barriers having been addressed, notably the pre-
funding requirement for foreign investors. The inclusion of
more Vietnamese firms in global indices will create a broader,
more accessible market for both local and international
investors. The government’s ambitious development plan
has increased the demand for capital, both through private
placements of listed companies and an anticipated new
wave of IPOs over the next couple of years which will expand
investment opportunities. Capital market transactions have
been an historical strength for VEIL. The management team
is identifying suitable transactions and unique opportunities
that fit into its long-term investment vision.
The anticipated implementation of a new trading system and
the introduction of a Central Counterparty Clearing service
will further help enhance market efficiency and liquidity.
While the direction of foreign capital flows remains difficult
to predict, these reforms are expected to increase domestic
investor participation, a trend observed over the past four
years. Early indicators suggest a potential turnaround in
Vietnam’s real estate sector in 2025, supported by improving
liquidity, policy measures to assist developers, and renewed
demand in the residential segment. A recovery in real estate
would benefit both VEIL’s direct property holdings and its
banking exposure, as banks are the primary providers of
credit to developers and mortgage borrowers. Additionally,
credit expansion driven by urbanisation and infrastructure
development could further support growth in both sectors.
In light of recent developments, we have revised down our
earnings forecasts for the market, but still believe high
single digit EPS growth should be achievable in 2025, puing
Vietnam on an undemanding valuation relative to regional
peers. We believe the VEIL portfolio is well placed to capture
Vietnam’s potential growth, being almost exclusively focused
on the domestic economy. With minimal direct portfolio
exposure to the export-related sectors, there is a degree of
insulation from the potential impact of new tariffs.
With low public debt, political stability, and increasing
infrastructure investment, Vietnam is well positioned to
navigate the current period of uncertainty. We remain
confident that the portfolio should be underpinned by
strong economic fundamentals which should support its
performance over the medium term.
On the downside, the materials and resources sectors were a
detractor to performance, with VEIL’s overweight position in
steel producers affected by weak output prices and concerns
over trade protectionism in export markets. Despite reducing
its exposure from 11.5% to 5.5%, VEIL remains overweight by
1.8% in the sector, believing that Vietnam’s infrastructure
expansion will drive long-term demand. Hoa Phat Group
(HPG), Vietnam’s biggest steel producer and a VEIL’s biggest
holding at 5.3% vs 3.3% in the VNI, announced plans to
establish a division for high-quality steel production for
high-speed rail projects, aligning with the government’s
infrastructure development agenda.
The real estate sector, where VEIL holds 16.9% and remains
overweight by 5.7%, underperformed, with investor sentiment
remaining weak throughout 2024. Slow project launches,
sluggish sales, and liquidity challenges persisted, leaving
cash flow tied up in unfinished developments. In consumer
staples, VEIL’s underweight position in Vinamilk (VNM, 1.4% in
VEIL vs 2.6% in VNI) and Sabeco (SAB, 0.0% in VEIL vs. 1.4% in
VNI) contributed positively.
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Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited - Annual Report 2024