Emmerson Plc / Ticker: EML / Index: LSE / Sector: Mining
28 October 2019
Emmerson Plc ("Emmerson" or the "Company")
72% Increase in Mineral Resource Estimate ("MRE") for Khemisset Potash Project to 537 Million Tonnes
Emmerson Plc, the Moroccan focused potash development company, is pleased to announce an upgraded JORC compliant Mineral Resource Estimate ("MRE") for its 100% owned Khemisset Potash Project in Northern Morocco ("Khemisset" or "the Project"), delivering a 72% increase in total resource to 537 million tonnes ("Mt") of potash with an average grade of 9.24% K2O. To view the press release with the illustrative diagrams please use the following link: http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2426R_1-2019-10-27.pdf
Khemisset is a world class development stage potash project which, based on its Scoping Study (refer announcement from 20 November 2018), has a minimum mine life of 20 years, industry leading capital cost to production, bottom quartile delivered cost to customer, delivering average annual EBITDA of US$236 million and a post-tax NPV10 of US$1.14 billion[1].
Highlights
· More than half a billion tonnes of JORC compliant potash resource (537Mt at 9.24% K2O)
o Represents a 72% increase of resource tonnes from maiden MRE (May 2018)
· 70% of resource upgraded to higher confidence Indicated category
· In situ value of contained potash within the MRE of approximately US$30 billion[2]
· Significant resource upside remains
o Basin remains open towards the northeast
o Economic (breakeven) cut-off grade is substantially below the cut-off used to define the updated MRE, which implies significant further upside potential to MRE and mine life
· Project Development continues to progress exceptionally well
o Feasibility on track for completion in H1 2020
o Examining the potential for a Phase 2 expansion to increase production by 50%, which would substantially improve economics
o Examining the potential to convert some Muriate of Potash ("MoP") to Sulphate of Potash ("SoP"), which could significantly enhanced economics for Emmerson
Hayden Locke, CEO of Emmerson, commented:
"Following a successful drilling campaign, it is pleasing to see the overall MRE tonnages increase by over 70%, to more than half a billion tonnes. The recalculation of the economic cut-off grade for Khemisset shows the Project can be profitable to a grade as low as 5.2% K2O and, as a result, we continue to believe there is strong potential to increase the mine life at Khemisset. The updated MRE is a further validation of the world class prospects for the Project."
"We continue to make exceptional progress on the Feasibility Study and remain confident it will be delivered within our target timeline of the first half of 2020. We expect to release Individual components of the Feasibility Study as they are completed over the coming months, which we believe will continue to support the view that Khemisset is among the lowest capital cost potash projects globally. "
"The significant proportion of the MRE within the higher confidence Indicated resource category will support our ongoing discussions with various potential debt financing institutions which included an indicative proposal for up to US$230 million of project finance debt from a major European commercial bank."
"The updated MRE represents a significant milestone for the Company, and I would personally like to take this opportunity to thank our entire team, and especially our independent consultants, Golder Associates UK, for their professional approach to the work completed on the Khemisset Project."
1 Based on industry expert Argus FMB price forecasts
2 Based on a selling price of US$360/tonne
|
Million Tonnes (potash seam) |
K2O (%) |
Indicated Category |
375.2 |
9.36 |
Inferred Category |
161.8 |
8.96 |
Total (Indicated & Inferred) |
536.9 |
9.24 |
Table 1: Khemisset JORC Mineral Resource Estimate
Increased and Updated JORC Resource
The Mineral Resource Estimate ("MRE") was completed by independent consultants Golder Associates (UK) Ltd ("Golder") at the request of Emmerson and includes data sets from all historical and recently completed (see RNS dated 02 September 2019) drilling and other field work at Khemisset.
A maiden MRE for the Project was completed in May 2018 and was based on historical exploration conducted across the Khemisset basin between 1955 and 1969, comprising approximately 86,500m of drilling, and three a confirmatory drill holes comprising 1,543m conducted by Emmerson in 2016.
A Scoping Study has since been conducted by Golder in 2018 and a new exploration campaign by Emmerson in 2019 comprising 9 infill drill holes totalling 6,485m provided new geological data in the area of the Oued Beht basin, which is considered the area most likely to be the target of initial mining operations.
Figure 1. Plan View of the Mineral Resource Estimate Area showing Indicated Resources (Blue) and Inferred Resources (Red) - View PDF
This information has been supplemented by 2D seismic surveying and interpretation commissioned by Emmerson in 2018, providing an increased level of geological understanding across the deposit. The new information has allowed Golder to further validate the historical dataset and 2018 interpretations to update the geological model which informs the updated MRE. The updated MRE will serve as the basis of the ongoing Feasibility Study, which the Company expects to release in the first half of 2020.
As part of the Feasibility Study, Golder conducted a site visit in February 2019 during the early stages of the drilling campaign, affording the opportunity to check the local geology through examination of drill cores, the core shed, wider logging and sample preparation facilities, and interacting with Emmerson's staff. It also enabled Golder to confirm drilling, sampling, and Quality Assurance/Quality Control ("QA/QC") best practice procedures were being implemented by Emmerson, in addition to making considerations for the wider Feasibility Study including multidisciplinary test work programmes.
Based on the new information, Golder has created a 3D geological stratigraphy model to update the MRE (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Oblique View of the Geological Model showing topography, drill traces, and the potash seam at depth - View PDF
This is an advancement on previous model iterations for the Khemisset Project, and more accurately represents the potash horizon and overlying stratigraphy. The Khemisset MRE has been classified as Indicated and Inferred following consideration for data accuracy, reliability and geological continuity. Resources have been estimated by the application of a 'value' (grade x thickness) cut-off of 7.5 and absolute cut-offs of 7.5% K2O and 0.8m minimum thickness. The updated MRE is:
|
Million Tonnes (potash seam) |
K2O (%) |
Indicated Category |
375.2 |
9.36 |
Inferred Category |
161.8 |
8.96 |
Total (Indicated & Inferred) |
536.9 |
9.24 |
Table 2: Khemisset JORC Mineral Resource
This Resource Update has been prepared in accordance with the reporting standards required under the Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves, by the Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC Code, 2012)3. The Resource estimate presented here is the result of the audit, validation and interpretation of historic and recent exploration data by Golder and Emmerson and follows a maiden Resource estimate prepared in 2018.
3 The JORC Code 2012 Edition, Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves, 2012, Joint Ore Reserves Committee of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, Australian Institute of Geoscientists and Minerals Council of Australia (JORC)
Economic Cut-off Grade Calculation
As part of the process to update the MRE, the economic cut-off grade for the Khemisset deposit was recalculated using the modifying parameters obtained from the Scoping Study released in November 2018.
The economic break-even grade for the Project is estimated to be approximately 5.2% K2O. This calculation is based on a conservative US$300 / tonne CFR Brazil potash price and, unusually, includes allowances for capital payback.
At US$360/tonne, with no capital payback allowance, the cut-off grade drops to 3.9% K2O. The economic cut-off grade is well below the cut-off grade assumed in the geological model, which is the limiting factor in the size of the resource, which suggests there remains significant resource upside which could be included in the mine plan at a later date.
Khemisset Potash Project - Economic Cut-off Grade Calculation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Potash Price |
CFR Brazil Potash Price (Assumed) |
$ 300.00 |
|
Assumed low side price of Scoping Study |
|
Freight (Brazil) |
$(15.00) |
|
Emmerson Scoping Study |
|
Logistics to Port |
$ (10.00) |
|
Emmerson Scoping Study |
|
Mine Gate Netback Price |
|
$275.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Capex |
Assumed Capex (incl financing costs) |
$406,000,000 |
|
Emmerson Scoping Study |
|
Production Rate (tpa) |
800,000 |
|
Emmerson Scoping Study |
|
Assumed Mine Life (years) |
20 |
|
Pay back capital over life of mine |
|
Life-of-Mine Product Tonnes |
16,000,000 |
|
|
|
Capex per tonne of production (LoM) |
|
$(25.38) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Opex |
U/G (t/ROM) |
$(5.50) |
|
Emmerson Scoping Study |
|
A/G (t/ROM) |
$(7.20) |
|
Emmerson Scoping Study |
|
Sustaining Capital (t/ROM) |
$(4.20) |
|
Emmerson Scoping Study |
|
Other Costs and Admin |
$(0.70) |
|
Emmerson Scoping Study |
|
G&A |
$(0.40) |
|
Emmerson Scoping Study |
|
Opex to Mine Gate (t/ROM) |
|
$(18.00) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Processing |
Product Purity |
95.0% |
|
Minimum requirement for saleable K60 MOP |
|
Cut-off - Net Recovered Grade (%KCl) |
6.85% |
|
|
|
Process Recovery Rate |
83.00% |
|
Emmerson Scoping Study |
|
Cut-off Grade (%KCl) |
8.25% |
|
|
|
K2O:KCl Conversion Factor |
0.6317 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cut-off Grade |
(%K2O) |
5.21% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2: Economic Cut-off Grade Calculation Based on Khemisset Scoping Study
Financing Planning
The Company continues to assess various financing options for the capital investment required for Khemisset. Multiple options are being assessed at this stage, and Emmerson management believe that a number of different financing structures will be available to the Company at the point of final investment decision.
The most advanced discussions involve an existing formal indication of potential project finance debt of up to US$230m from a major European commercial bank, assuming standard project finance terms and conditions. For further information on these discussions, see RNS dated 10 June 2019.
**ENDS**
For further information, please visit www.emmersonplc.com, follow us on Twitter (@emmerson_plc), or contact:
Hayden Locke |
Emmerson Plc |
Tel: +44 (0) 207 236 1177 |
Edward McDermott |
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Damon Heath Isabella Pierre |
Shard Capital Partners |
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7186 9950 |
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Isabel de Salis Megan Dennison |
St Brides Partners Ltd Financial PR/IR |
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7236 1177 |
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Notes to Editors
Emmerson's primary focus is on developing the Khemisset Potash Project located in Northern Morocco. The project has a large JORC Resource Estimate (2012) of 537.2Mt @ 9.24% K2O and significant exploration potential with an accelerated development pathway targeting a low capex, high margin mine. A Scoping Study confirming technical feasibility and outstanding financial metrics was completed in late 2018, and a detailed Feasibility Study is expected to be finalised in the first half of 2020.
Khemisset is perfectly located to capitalise on the expected growth of African fertiliser consumption whilst also being located on the doorstep of European markets. This unique positioning means the project will receive a premium netback price compared to existing potash producers. The need to feed the world's rapidly increasing population is driving demand for potash and Emmerson is well placed to benefit from the opportunities this presents.
The information contained within this announcement is deemed by the Company to constitute inside information as stipulated under the Market Abuse Regulations (EU) No. 596/2014.
Appendix 1: Competent Person's Statement and Consent Form - View PDF
Appendix 2: JORC Table 1