EXHIBIT (C)(4)
Presentation to
Discussion Materials
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
September 28, 2007
Highly Confidential
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aspects of any potential transaction or structure described herein that are necessary to support any U.S. federal
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benefits, with no limitations imposed by Goldman Sachs.
Table of Contents
I. Review of Special Committee’s Offer
II. Update on Valuation
Appendix A: Additional Analysis
Review of Special Committee’s Offer 1
I. Review of Special Committee’s Offer
Review of Special Committee’s Offer 2
Comparison of Mutual and Special Committee Offers
($ in millions)
Alfa Mutual Offer Special Committee Offer AIG / 21st Century
Date 17-Jul-2007 26-Sep-2007 15-May-2007
Offer Price per Share $ 17.60 $ 24.00 $ 22.00
Aggregate Consideration ($mm) $ 646 $ 887 $ 753
Premium to: $ 17.60 $ 24.00 $ 22.00
Undisturbed Price $ 15.20 15.8 % 57.9 % 32.6 %
52-Wk High¹ 19.85 (11.3) 20.9 22.6
30-Day Average 16.58 6.2 44.8 28.7
90-Day Average 17.56 0.2 36.7 30.3
| 1 |
|
Year Average 17.81 (1.2) 34.8 39.8 |
Shareholders Equity
GAAP Equity (3/31/2007A)² $ 822.2 1.74 x 2.40 x 2.08 x
GAAP Equity (6/30/2007A)² 849.1 1.69 2.32 2.05
GAAP Equity (12/31/2007E)—Mgmt. Est.² 888.5 1.61 2.22 2.13
Operating EPS (IBES Estimates)
2007E $ 1.22 14.4 x 19.7 x 21.0 x
2008E 1.33 13.2 18.0 21.0
Operating EPS (Management Estimates)
2007E $ 1.33 13.2 x 18.0 x 24.2 x
2008E 1.45 12.2 16.6 22.2
Note: Alfa Management projections as of 21-Aug-2007
| 1 |
|
Alfa’s 52-Wk High prior to offer was on 16-Nov-2006; 21st Century’s 52-Wk High prior to offer was 21-Dec-2006. |
| 2 |
|
Excludes AOCI. |
Review of Special Committee’s Offer 3
Alfa Corp.’s Stock Price Had Declined Leading Up to the
Offer
Due to limited trading volume, slight increases / decreases in buying activity have meaningful impacts; the run-up in
Alfa’s stock price until April 2007 could be a temporary event
If Mutual had not put in its offer, Alfa would likely trade at $14.72 per share¹, or 19.3% discount to Alfa’s current
share price
It could take Alfa’s stock price years to achieve its prior high
Share Price History
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
Jul-2001 Jul-2003 Jul-2005 Jul-2007
Daily from 13-Jul-2001 to 13-July-2007
Closing Price (USD)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Volume (000)
Volume Alfa Corporation
39 Months to Breakeven
Source: Company filings, FactSet
Note: Market data as of 13-Jul-2007.
¹ Alfa undisturbed stock price (16-Jul-2007) of $15.20, discounted by 3.2%, the discount that Alfa’s peers are currently trading at relative to announcement of the Mutual’s offer.
Review of Special Committee’s Offer 4
Limited Liquidity Causes Large Swings in Alfa Corp’s Stock
Price
ADTV as a % of Float
Three Months Preceding Offer (17-Apr-2007 – 17-Jul-2007)
0.9 %
0.8 %
0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
0.6 %
0.5 %
0.4 %
0.3 %
0.5 %
SAFT CGI HGIC IPCC HMN STFC FFG ALL MCY ALFA
Three Months Preceding 1 Year Prior to Offer (17-Apr-2006 – 17-Jul-2006)
1.0 %
0.7 % 0.7 %
0.6 % 0.5 %
0.4 %
0.4 % 0.4 %
0.2 % 0.2 %
0.4 %
SAFT STFC IPCC HMN HGIC MCY ALL CGI TW ALFA FFG
Source: Bloomberg
Review of Special Committee’s Offer 5
Shares Traded at Various Prices – Alfa Corp.
Though the share price ran up over the past year, limited trading volume maintained average share price well
below 52 week high
3-month 6-month
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
2,700
3,000
$15.10 –
$15.79
$15.80 –
$16.49
$16.50 –
$17.18
$17.19 –
$17.88
$17.89 –
$18.58
$18.59 –
$19.29
Daily from 13-Apr-2007 to 13-Jul-2007
Volume (000)
Weighted Average Price: $16.90
Total Shares Traded as Percent of Shares
Outstanding: 8.03%
$15.38
ADTV: 101.063
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
$15.10 –
$15.79
$15.80 –
$16.49
$16.50 –
$17.18
$17.19 –
$17.88
$17.89 –
$18.58
$18.59 –
$19.29
Daily from 12-Jan-2007 to 13-Jul-2007
Volume (000)
Weighted Average Price: $17.59
Total Shares Traded as Percent of
Shares Outstanding: 14.16%
$15.38
ADTV: 90.517
1-year 3-year
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
$15.10 –
$15.88
$15.89 –
$16.67
$16.68 –
$17.47
$17.48 –
$18.26
$18.27 –
$19.05
$19.06 –
$19.85
Daily from 13-Jul-2006 to 13-Jul-2007
Volume (000)
Weighted Average Price: $17.72
Total Shares Traded as Percent of
Shares Outstanding: 24.98%
$15.38
ADTV: 79.827
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
$12.82 –
$13.98
$13.99 –
$15.15
$15.16 –
$16.32
$16.33 –
$17.50
$17.51 –
$18.67
$18.68 –
$18.67
Daily from 13-Jul-2004 to 13-Jul-2007
Volume (000)
Weighted Average Price:
$16.38
Total Shares Traded as
Percent of Shares
Outstanding: 59.67%
$15.38
ADTV: 63.466
Source: Factset, market data as of 13-Jul-2007
Review of Special Committee’s Offer 6
Personal Lines Value Map
As of 13-Jul-2007¹ As of 17-Jul-2003²
Alfa—IBES
Alfa—Mgmt
Allstate
Mercury
Hanover
Commerce
State Auto Infinity P&C
Horace Mann
Harleysville
Safety
Travelers
Chubb
Progressive
Safeco
United F&C
y = 0.0766x + 0.5016
R2 = 0.4485
1.0x
1.4x
1.8x
2.2x
2.6x
3.0x
8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
2007 ROACE (Ex-AOCI)
Price / Book
Premium to Line:
2.8%—9.3%
2007E
ROACE
Implied
Multiple
10.0% 1.26x
11.0 1.34
12.0 1.42
13.0 1.49
14.0 1.57
15.0 1.65
16.0 1.72
y = 0.1308x—0.0325
R2 = 0.7286
0.5x
0.9x
1.3x
1.7x
2.1x
2.5x
2.9x
3.3x
3.7x
4.1x
4.5x
4.9x
6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28%
2003 ROACE (Ex-AOCI)
Price / Book
Allstate
Mercury
Commerce
State Auto
FBL
Harleysville
Horace Mann
Infinity P&C
Safety
Donegal
Travelers
Chubb
21 Century
Progressive
United F&C
Safeco
Premium to Line:
4.1 %
2003E
ROACE
Implied
Multiple
10.0% 1.28x
11.0 1.41
12.0 1.54
13.0 1.67
14.0 1.80
15.0 1.93
16.0 2.06
Alfa—IBES
¹ Financial data as of 31-Mar-2007. Market data as of 13-Jul-2007.
² Financial data as of 30-Jun-2003. Market data as of 17-Jul-2003.
Review of Special Committee’s Offer 7
Comparison of Alfa Corp with 21st Century
Alfa Corp and 21st Century are very different businesses that are not comparable
Alfa Corp 21st Century
3-Year Net Operating Income CAGR (2003-06) 11.7 % 29.7 %
3-Year EPS CAGR (2003-06) 11.2 28.7
3-Year EPS—Management Projections (2007-10) 8.1 13.5
IBES Long-term Growth 8.0 15.0
Profitability
ROACE (Ex-AOCI) 2006A 13.4 % 11.1 %
ROACE (Ex-AOCI) 2006A—with Synergies¹ 13.7 15.5
Business Mix (2006 DPW %)
Auto 62.4 % 100.0 %
Property and Other² 37.6 0.0
% 2006A Operating Earnings from Life Operations 23.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution Captive Agents Direct
Structure Cat sharing plan with Alfa Mutual Limited Cat risk which is covered via
reinsurance
Ratings (Before and After Announcement) Before: A+ Before: A+
After: A+ (likely affirmed) After: A+; Ratings under positive watch by
S&P and Fitch, reaffirmed by A.M. Best
Advertising Spend (Past 5 Yrs) $ 16.5 $ 308.9
| 1 |
|
Assuming pre-tax run-rate synergies of $4.3mm for Alfa and $65mm for 21st Century. |
| 2 |
|
Includes homeowner, farmowner, commercial, manufactured homes and other. |
| 3 |
|
Three-month average for the period 17-Apr-2006 – 17-Jul-2006. |
Update on Valuation 8
II. Update on Valuation
Update on Valuation 9
Price Performance Since Take Private Announcement
Indexed Stock Price Since July 17, 2007
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
17-Jul-2007 27-Jul-2007 6-Aug-2007 16-Aug-2007 26-Aug-2007 5-Sep-2007 15-Sep-2007 25-Sep-2007
Indexed Price
Alfa Corp S&P 500 Alfa Peers¹ Other Personal Lines²
19.9%
(1.5%)
(3.2%)
(2.0%)
Note: Market data as of 26-Sep-2007.
1 Alfa Peers include: Allstate, Mercury General, Hanover, Commerce Group, State Auto, FBL Financial, Harleysville, Infinity P&C, Horace Mann, Safety Insurance, and Donegal.
| 2 |
|
Other Personal Lines include: Travelers, Chubb, Progressive, Safeco, and United Fire & Casualty. |
Update on Valuation 10
Trading Performance Since Take Private Announcement
Price / NTM Earnings and Price / Book Since July 17, 2007
Price / NTM Earnings Price / Book
7.0 x
8.0 x
9.0 x
10.0 x
11.0 x
12.0 x
13.0 x
14.0 x
Jul-2007 Aug-2007 Sep-2007
Other
Alfa Corp Alfa Peers¹ Personal Lines²
Annoucement 11.5 x 10.9 x 9.9 x
Current 13.7 10.4 10.1
% Change 19.6 % (5.1)% 1.5 %
1.0x
1.1x
1.2x
1.3x
1.4x
1.5x
1.6x
1.7x
1.8x
Jul-2007 Aug-2007 Sep-2007
Other
Alfa Corp Alfa Peers¹ Personal Lines²
Annoucement 1.4 x 1.3 x 1.5 x
Current 1.7 1.3 1.6
% Change 19.9 % (1.8)% 9.2 %
Alfa Corp Alfa Peers¹ Other Personal Lines²
Source: SNL Financial, Factset. Market data as of 26-Sep-2007
1 Alfa Peers include: Allstate, Mercury General, Hanover, Commerce Group, State Auto, FBL Financial, Harleysville, Infinity P&C, Horace Mann, Safety Insurance, and Donegal.
| 2 |
|
Other Personal Lines inlcude: Travelers, Chubb, Progressive, Safeco, and United Fire & Casualty. |
Update on Valuation 11
Personal Lines Value Map
As of 26-Sep-2007
y = 0.0755x + 0.4154
R2 = 0.3671
0.8x
1.2x
1.6x
2.0x
2.4x
2.8x
8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%
2007 ROACE (Ex-AOCI)
Price / Book
State Auto
Alfa—IBES
2007E
ROACE
Implied
Multiple
10.0 % 1.17 x
11.0 1.25
12.0 1.32
13.0 1.40
14.0 1.47
15.0 1.55
16.0 1.62
Allstate
Mercury
Hanover
Commerce FBL
Harleysville
Horace Mann Infinity P&C
Safety
Donegal
Travelers
Chubb
Progressive
Safeco
United F&C Alfa -Mgmt
Premium to Line:
27.1%—29.5%
Note: Financial data as of 30-Jun-2007. Market data as of 26-Sep-2007.
Note: Management projections as of 21-Aug- 2007.
Update on Valuation 12
Investor Expectation for Final Offer Price
Stock Price (26-Sep-2007) $ 18.23
Alfa Quarterly 2007E Dividend per Share 0.12
Months to Close
| 2 |
|
Months 3 Months 4 Months 5 Months |
7.5 % $ 18.33 $ 18.32 $ 18.43 $ 18.55
8.0 18.35 18.34 18.46 18.58
8.5 18.36 18.37 18.49 18.62
9.0 18.37 18.39 18.52 18.66
9.5 18.39 18.41 18.55 18.69
10.0 18.40 18.43 18.58 18.73
10.5 18.42 18.45 18.61 18.76
11.0 18.43 18.47 18.64 18.80
Annualized Spread
Update on Valuation 13
Analysis of Transaction at Various Pricing Levels
($ in millions)
Purchase Price Per Share
Price Per Share $ 17.60 $ 18.00 $ 18.25 $ 18.50 $ 18.75 $ 19.00 $ 19.25 $ 19.50 $ 24.00
Aggregate Valuation $ 1,435 $ 1,468 $ 1,489 $ 1,510 $ 1,531 $ 1,552 $ 1,573 $ 1,594 $ 1,971
Consideration to Minority Shareholders $ 650 $ 660 $ 670 $ 680 $ 690 $ 700 $ 710 $ 720 $ 890
Premium to:
Undisturbed Price (16-Jun-2007) $ 15.20 15.8 % 18.4 % 20.1 % 21.7 % 23.4 % 25.0 % 26.6 % 28.3 % 57.9 %
Current Price (13-Jul-2007) 15.38 14.4 17.0 18.7 20.3 21.9 23.5 25.2 26.8 56.0
52-Wk High (16-Nov-2006) 19.85 (11.3) (9.3) (8.1) (6.8) (5.5) (4.3) (3.0) (1.8) 20.9
30-Day Average 16.58 6.2 8.6 10.1 11.6 13.1 14.6 16.1 17.6 44.8
90-Day Average 17.56 0.2 2.5 3.9 5.3 6.8 8.2 9.6 11.0 36.7
1-Year Average 17.81 (1.2) 1.1 2.5 3.9 5.3 6.7 8.1 9.5 34.8
Shareholder’s Equity
GAAP Equity (3/31/2007A)¹ $ 822.2 1.74 x 1.79 x 1.81 x 1.84 x 1.86 x 1.89 x 1.91 x 1.94 x 2.40 x
GAAP Equity (12/31/2007E)—Mgmt Est.¹ 888.5 1.61 1.65 1.68 1.70 1.72 1.75 1.77 1.79 2.22
Operating EPS (Mgmt Est.)
2007E $ 1.33 13.2 x 13.5 x 13.7 x 13.9 x 14.1 x 14.3 x 14.4 x 14.6 x 18.0 x
2008E 1.45 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 16.6
BCAR: Real Estate Reclassification
Stressed Group BCAR Estimate 302 298 293 287 282 235
Lowest Individual Unstressed BCAR AIC—225 AIC—225 AIC—225 AIC—225 AMI—224 AMF—194
BCAR: No Real Estate Reclassification
Stressed Group BCAR Estimate 270 267 263 258 253
Lowest Individual Unstressed BCAR AMI—212 AMI—210 AMI—208 AMI—205 AMI—202
This analysis provides valuation metrics at various potential illustrative acquisition prices, and is intended solely for benchmarking purposes. It
does not constitute a recommendation on a valuation range.
Note: Market data as of 13-Jul-2007.
Note: Management projections as of 21-Aug-2007.
| 1 |
|
Excludes AOCI. |
Update on Valuation 14
Analysis of Transaction at Various Pricing Levels (cont.’d)
($ in millions)
Purchase Price Per Share
Price Per Share $ 20.00 $ 20.50 $ 21.00 $ 21.50 $ 22.00 $ 22.50 $ 23.00 $ 23.50 $ 24.00
Aggregate Valuation $ 1,636 $ 1,678 $ 1,720 $ 1,761 $ 1,803 $ 1,845 $ 1,887 $ 1,929 $ 1,971
Consideration to Minority Shareholders $ 740 $ 750 $ 770 $ 790 $ 810 $ 830 $ 850 $ 870 $ 890
Premium to:
Undisturbed Price (16-Jun-2007) $ 15.20 31.6 % 34.9 % 38.2 % 41.4 % 44.7 % 48.0 % 51.3 % 54.6 % 57.9 %
Current Price (13-Jul-2007) 15.38 30.0 33.3 36.5 39.8 43.0 46.3 49.5 52.8 56.0
52-Wk High (16-Nov-2006) 19.85 0.8 3.3 5.8 8.3 10.8 13.4 15.9 18.4 20.9
30-Day Average 16.58 20.6 23.7 26.7 29.7 32.7 35.7 38.7 41.7 44.8
90-Day Average 17.56 13.9 16.7 19.6 22.4 25.3 28.1 31.0 33.8 36.7
1-Year Average 17.81 12.3 15.1 17.9 20.7 23.5 26.3 29.1 32.0 34.8
Shareholder’s Equity
GAAP Equity (3/31/2007A)¹ $ 822.2 1.99 x 2.04 x 2.09 x 2.14 x 2.19 x 2.24 x 2.30 x 2.35 x 2.40 x
GAAP Equity (12/31/2007E)—Mgmt Est.¹ 888.5 1.84 1.89 1.94 1.98 2.03 2.08 2.12 2.17 2.22
Operating EPS (Mgmt Est.)
2007E $ 1.33 15.0 x 15.4 x 15.8 x 16.1 x 16.5 x 16.9 x 17.3 x 17.6 x 18.0 x
2008E 1.45 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.6
BCAR: Real Estate Reclassification
Stressed Group BCAR Estimate 277 272 266 261 256 250 245 240 235
Lowest Individual Unstressed BCAR AMI—221 AMI—218 AMI—215 AMI—211 AMI—207 AMI—204 AMI—201 AMF—195 AMF—194
BCAR: No Real Estate Reclassification
Stressed Group BCAR Estimate 249 244 239 234 230 225
Lowest Individual Unstressed BCAR AMF—197 AMF—193 AMF—189 AMF—185 AMF—182 AMF—178
This analysis provides valuation metrics at various potential illustrative acquisition prices, and is intended solely for benchmarking purposes. It
does not constitute a recommendation on a valuation range.
Note: Market data as of 13-Jul-2007.
Note: Management projections as of 21-Aug-2007.
| 1 |
|
Excludes AOCI. |
Update on Valuation 15
Comparison of Selected Buyouts by Significant Existing
Shareholders – Financial Institutions
($ in millions, except per share data)
Stock 52-Week Initial Initial Inside
Aggregate Price One High Premium Over Premium Percent Ownership
Effective Acquiring Company/ Consideration Day Prior Prior to 1-Week Avg Over 52- Initial Final Increase Before the
Date Acquired Company (mm) to Ann. Ann. Prior to Ann. Week High Premium Premium in Offer¹ Transaction
May-07 American Financial Group Inc $ 245 $ 21.64 $ 23.96 9.4 % (1.9)% 8.6 % 13.2 % 4.6 % 81.0 %
Great American Finl Res Inc
May-07 AIG $ 813 $ 16.34 $ 17.95 19.8 % 10.0 % 20.9 % 34.6 % 13.8 % 61.9 %
21st Century Insurance Co
Apr-07 Toronto-Dominion Bank $3,232 $ 30.35 $ 32.18 5.9 % 0.7 % 6.5 % 6.5 % 0.0 % 54.6 %
TD Banknorth Inc
May-06 Erie Indemnity Co $ 75 $ 30.00 $ 32.19 12.3 % (0.6)% 6.7 % 6.7 % 0.0 % 75.1 %
Erie Family Life Insurance Co
Nov-01 Toronto-Dominion Bank $ 403 $ 6.20 $ 17.94 35.2 % (49.8)% 45.2 % 53.2 % 8.1 % 88.8 %
TD Waterhouse Group Inc
Dec-01 Liberty Mutual Insurance Co $ 536 $ 32.70 $ 47.22 0.6 % (29.2)% 2.3 % 2.3 % 0.0 % 65.6 %
Liberty Financial Cos Inc
Aug-01 CSFB $ 110 $ 2.50 $ 15.56 35.7 % (75.0)% 60.0 % 140.0 % 80.0 % 82.0 %
CSFBdirect
Jan-01 AXA SA $ 11,189 $ 52.25 $ 52.31 5.8 % 2.3 % 2.4 % 4.6 % 2.2 % 60.0 %
AXA Financial Inc
Jun-00 Hartford Fin Svcs Group Inc $ 1,325 $ 42.56 $ 55.00 9.3 % (20.0)% 3.4 % 18.6 % 15.3 % 80.4 %
Hartford Life(ITT Hartford)
Apr-00 Citigroup $ 2,449 $ 33.68 $ 41.31 21.7 % 0.5 % 23.2 % 24.6 % 1.3 % 85.0 %
Travelers Prop. Casualty Corp
Dec-98 Allmerica Financial Corp $ 212 $ 27.56 $ 34.62 1.7 % (16.2)% 5.2 % 17.0 % 11.8 % 82.0 %
Citizens Corp
Median¹ 9.4 % (1.9)% 6.7 % 17.0 % 9.9 % 80.4 %
Source: SEC filings, Thomson One, and SDC Financial
Note: Reflects FIG deals for U.S. targets.
| 1 |
|
Median calculation for percent increase in offer excludes cases where percent increase in offer equals 0%. |
Additional Analysis 16
Appendix A: Additional Analysis
Additional Analysis 17
Common Stock Comparison of Selected P&C Insurers
As of 13-Jul-2007
($ in millions)
Company
Market
Cap.
% of 52-Wk.
High 2007E 2008E
| 5 |
|
Year |
Growth¹
P/B (ex-
AOCI) 2007E 2008E
Dividend
Yield
Adj. Debt /
Capital²
Alfa Corp—IBES³ $ 1,249 77.5 % 12.6 x 11.6 x NA 1.5 x 11.6 % 11.8 % 3.1 % 10.7 %
Alfa Corp—Mgmt Estimates³ 1,249 77.5 11.5 10.6 7.5 1.5 12.8 12.8 3.1 10.7
Alfa Peers
Allstate $ 37,471 92.6 % 8.7 x 8.8 x 8.0 % 1.7 x 19.0 % 16.6 % 2.5 % 17.8 %
Mercury General 3,009 95.4 12.8 12.9 NA 1.8 13.6 12.8 3.8 7.7
Hanover 2,599 99.0 11.8 12.0 12.5 1.2 10.1 9.2 0.6 20.5
Commerce Group 2,314 98.1 10.5 12.0 NA 1.5 14.2 11.6 3.4 16.6
State Auto 1,257 85.7 11.0 11.1 10.0 1.4 12.5 11.3 1.3 11.9
FBL Financial 1,192 95.1 13.2 12.3 10.0 1.4 10.0 9.9 1.2 26.6
Harleysville 1,079 86.1 11.5 10.9 10.0 1.5 12.4 12.0 2.3 13.9
Horace Mann 979 96.4 11.5 11.5 NA 1.5 12.3 11.3 1.9 23.0
Infinity P&C 970 89.9 13.5 13.1 10.0 1.4 10.2 9.8 0.7 22.7
Safety Insurance 632 69.0 7.1 8.8 15.0 1.2 16.4 12.0 2.6 0.0
Donegal 380 71.7 11.4 9.6 NA 1.2 10.0 11.1 2.4 8.8
High—Alfa Peers 99.0 % 13.5 x 13.1 x 15.0 % 1.8 x 19.0 % 16.6 % 3.8 % 26.6 %
Low—Alfa Peers 69.0 7.1 8.8 8.0 1.2 10.0 9.2 0.6 0.0
Median—Alfa Peers 92.6 11.5 11.5 10.0 1.4 12.4 11.3 2.3 16.6
Other Personal Lines
Travelers Company $ 36,091 94.4 % 9.6 x 9.5 x 9.0 % 1.5 x 14.6 % 13.4 % 2.2 % 17.5 %
Chubb 21,832 96.2 9.6 9.6 10.0 1.6 15.9 14.3 2.2 19.6
Progressive 16,672 88.9 12.5 13.5 8.7 2.6 19.6 15.6 0.0 15.8
Safeco 6,556 89.3 9.8 10.2 10.0 1.8 17.7 15.3 2.6 25.7
United Fire & Casualty 985 89.2 10.4 12.5 NA 1.6 14.5 11.0 1.5 0.0
High—Other Personal Lines 96.2 % 12.5 x 13.5 x 10.0 % 2.6 x 19.6 % 15.6 % 2.6 % 25.7 %
Low—Other Personal Lines 88.9 9.6 9.5 8.7 1.5 14.5 11.0 0.0 0.0
Median—Other Personal Lines 89.3 9.8 10.2 9.5 1.6 15.9 14.3 2.2 17.5
High—All Companies 99.0 % 13.5 x 13.5 x 15.0 % 2.6 x 19.6 % 16.6 % 3.8 % 26.6 %
Low—All Companies 69.0 7.1 8.8 8.0 1.2 10.0 9.2 0.0 0.0
Median—All Companies 91.3 11.2 11.3 10.0 1.5 13.9 11.8 2.2 17.1
Note: Financial data as of 31-Mar-2007. Market data as of 13-Jul-2007.
Note: Management projections as of 21-Aug-2007.
| 1 |
|
All EPS estimates have been calendarized and are based on IBES median estimates. |
2 Assumes the following equity credit weightings: mandatory convertibles—75%; perpetual preferreds—50%; trust preferred stock and contingent convertibles—0%.
| 3 |
|
Alfa’s commercial paper is excluded from its Debt / Capital calculation. |