EXHIBIT (C)(5)
EXHIBIT (C)(5)
Project Endurance
Discussion Materials
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
November 4, 2007
Highly Confidential
General Disclaimer
Goldman, Sachs & Co. (Goldman Sachs) does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice. In addition we mutually agree that,
subject to applicable law, you (and your employees, representatives and other agents) may disclose any aspects of any potential
transaction or structure described herein that are necessary to support any U.S. federal income tax benefits, and all materials of
any kind (including tax opinions and other tax analyses) related to those benefits, with no limitations imposed by Goldman Sachs.
ROLLTIDE\Presentation to Alfa Board Nov 04, 2007\Discussion Materials vFINAL.doc cmwill 4 Nov 2007 0:36 1/15
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Why Take Alfa Corp Private?
Alfa Mutual Objectives
Strategic Focus Single focus on policyholders and growing surplus
Better ability to focus on longer-term decision making
More flexibility to grow or shrink business, as market conditions dictate
Maintain underwriting discipline at expense of growth
Ability to competitively price for strategic gain
More Efficient Execution of
Long-Term Goals
Simplify the organizational structure
Need to solve for the best interest of only one constituent, policyholders
Accelerate and increase needed investments in technology (e.g., business intelligence) and
independent distribution network
Geographic Expansion and
Exposure Management
Larger investment in independent agent network needed in order to expand outside of
Alabama
Longer term perspective on acquisitions
Accelerate homeowner profitability improvement and catastrophe exposure management
Streamline the
Organizational and
Financial Structure
Greater flexibility to simplify the corporate structure
Greater flexibility in deploying capital
Reduce Costs Associated
With a Public Company
Eliminate or significantly reduce the costs, time and effort of being a publicly-traded
company
Recapture dividends and share repurchase dollars
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Comparison of Mutual Offers
($ in millions, except per share data)
Precedent Transactions
Undisturbed Alfa Mutual Final Financial Institutions Insurance Companies
Alfa Corp Initial Offer Price High6 Median Low High Median Low
Date 17-Jul-2007 17-Jul-2007 2-Nov-2007
Offer Price per Share $ 17.60 $ 22.00
Aggregate Consideration ($mm) $ 648 $ 815
Premium to: Alfa Corp. $ 15.20 $ 17.60 $ 22.00
Undisturbed Price $ 15.20 0.0 % 15.8 % 44.7 % 53.2 % 18.6 % 2.3 % 32.6 % 15.9 % 2.3 %
52-Wk High¹ 19.85 (23.4) (11.3) 10.8 22.6 (0.6) (61.4) 22.6 0.5 (29.2)
30-Day Average 16.58 (8.3) 6.2 32.7 42.3 23.6 (6.2) 42.3 22.8 (6.2)
90-Day Average 17.56 (13.4) 0.2 25.3 37.3 18.4 (18.6) 37.3 21.5 (18.6)
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Year Average 17.81 (14.7) (1.2) 23.5 58.3 10.1 (20.2) 58.3 13.6 (1.7) |
Shareholders Equity
GAAP Equity (3/31/2007A)² $ 822.2 1.50 x 1.75 x 2.20 x
GAAP Equity (6/30/2007A)² 849.1 1.45 1.70 2.13 3.80 x 1.44 x 0.89 x 3.80 x 1.52 x 1.07 x
GAAP Equity (12/31/2007E)Mgmt. Est.² 888.5 1.39 1.62 2.04
Operating EPS (IBES Estimates)³
2007E (FY1) $ 1.22 12.5 x 14.4 x 18.0 x 21.0 x 15.2 x 10.6 x 21.0 x 15.3 x 10.6 x
Next Twelve Months (NTM)4 1.28 11.9 13.8 17.3 19.5 15.4 10.5 18.1 13.4 10.5
2008E (FY2) 1.33 11.4 13.2 16.5 24.2 15.0 9.4 16.6 11.3 9.4
Operating EPS (Management Estimates)5
2007E $ 1.29 11.8 x 13.6 x 17.1 x
Next Twelve Months (NTM)4 1.37 11.1 12.9 16.1
2008E 1.45 10.5 12.2 15.2
Alfa Group Pro-Forma Stressed BCAR Ratio 302 256
Majority of the Minority Provision No No
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Alfas 52-Wk High prior to offer was on 16-Nov-2006. |
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Excludes AOCI. Book value in precedent transactions as of latest quarter prior to close. |
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IBES estimates as of 17-Jul-2007. |
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NTM earnings as of 17-Jul-2007. |
5 Alfa Corp management projections as of 21-Aug-2007, revised to reflect $0.04 loss related to MidCountry Financial in 2007.
6 High of Financial Institutions precedent transactions excludes CSFBs buyout of CSFB Direct minority shares in August 2001.
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Alfa Corp.s Historical Trading Multiples
Average P/E Multiple (NTM) Average Price/Book Multiple
13.7x
11.9x
13.0x
11.0x 11.2x 11.1x
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Yr 1 Yr as of 17-Jul-2007 |
1.5x
1.8x
1.7x
1.4x
1.4x
1.5x
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Yr 1 Yr as of 17-Jul-2007 |
Alfa Alfa Peers¹
Source: Factset
1 Alfa peers include Allstate, Mercury General, Hanover, Commerce Group, State Auto, FBL Financial, Harleysville, Horace Mann, Infinity P&C, Safety Insurance, Donegal.
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Offer Price Implied by Multiples and Precedent Premiums
($ per share)
IBES Estimates Management Estimates
Alfa Corp Historical 1 Year Next Twelve Months Price / Earnings¹
Alfa Corp Next Twelve Months Earnings Estimate²
Implied Undisturbed Price
Precedent Minority Buyout Premium³ 15.9 %18.6 % 15.9 %18.6 %
Implied Offer Price $ 20.35$ 20.82 $ 21.78$ 22.28
13.7 x
$ 1.28
$ 17.55
13.7 x
$ 1.37
$ 18.79
Source: Management Projections, IBES, SEC filings, Thomson One and SDC Financial
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Average NTM P/E for 1 year period ending 17-Jul-2007. |
2 IBES Estimates as of 17-Jul-2007 and Management estimates as of 21-Aug-2007 adjusted to reflect loss related to MidCountry of $0.04 per share.
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Range based on median premiums in minority buyouts of insurance companies and financial institutions broadly. |
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Dividend Discount Analysis
Management Estimates Sensitivity Analysis
Illustrative Trading Price per Share Implied Terminal Value Multiple
Discount Rate
9.0 % 10.0 % 11.0 %
2.5 % $ 19.06 $ 16.94 $ 15.30
3.0 19.99 17.61 15.79
3.5 21.09 18.37 16.35
4.0 22.40 19.27 16.99
Perpetuity
Growth
Discount Rate
9.0 % 10.0 % 11.0 %
2.5 % 11.5 x 10.0 x 8.8 x
3.0 12.5 10.7 9.4
3.5 13.6 11.5 10.0
4.0 15.0 12.5 10.7
Perpetuity
Growth
Illustrative Trading Price per Share
Discount Rate
9.0 % 10.0 % 11.0 %
(5.0)% $ 25.09 $ 21.72 $ 19.21
(2.5) 23.09 20.04 17.78
0.0 21.09 18.37 16.35
2.5 19.08 16.70 14.92
5.0 17.08 15.03 13.49
Change in
Mgt. Est.
Combined
Ratio
Source: Alfa Corp management projections as of 21-Aug-2007, revised to reflect $0.04 loss related to MidCountry Financial in 2007
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Value Impact of Eliminating Catastrophe Sharing Program
($ in millions, except per share data)
Observations Valuation Impact
Valued as of 30-Jun-2007
Protection is estimated to cost between $26mm and
$36mm per annum, assuming 4.8%6.8% Rate on
Line on $531mm xs $21mm
The illustrative savings to Alfa Mutual from the
elimination of the catastrophe sharing program is
valued at $48mm$82mm, or $1.30$2.20 per
share
Key Valuation Assumptions
Alfa Corp.s share of the catastrophe reinsurance
cost should be 65%
Discount rate of 10%, tax rate of 35%
PV of Illustrative Value of Eliminating
Cat Sharing Program to Minority Shareholders ($mm)
Terminal Multiple
81.2 10.0 x 11.0 x 12.0 x 13.0 x
Rate 4.8 % $ 48.2 $ 51.3 $ 54.5 $ 57.6
on 5.8 58.2 62.0 65.8 69.6
Line 6.8 68.2 72.7 77.2 81.6
Illustrative Value of Eliminating
Cat Sharing Program per Minority Share
Terminal Multiple
2.19 10.0 x 11.0 x 12.0 x 13.0 x
Rate 4.8 % $ 1.30 $ 1.39 $ 1.47 $ 1.56
on 5.8 1.57 1.67 1.78 1.88
Line 6.8 1.84 1.96 2.08 2.20
Premium to Undisturbed Share Price¹
Terminal Multiple
14.4 10.0 x 11.0 x 12.0 x 13.0 x
Rate 4.8 % 8.6 % 9.1 % 9.7 % 10.2 %
on 5.8 10.3 11.0 11.7 12.4
Line 6.8 12.1 12.9 13.7 14.5
Source: Management estimates
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PV of implied value per minority share calculated as a % of undisturbed share price of $15.20 (17-Jul-2007). |
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Value Impact of Synergies
($ in millions, except per share data)
Key Assumptions Valuation Impact
Synergies valued as of 6/30/2007
Synergy estimates based on management
$2.2mm in 2008 increasing to $5.2mm by 2012
Assumes discount rate of 10%, tax rate of 35%
Restructuring charge of 0.5x 2008E synergies
PV of Synergies ($mm)
Terminal Multiple
$ 37.07 10.0 x 11.0 x 12.0 x 13.0 x
50.0 % $ 15.5 $ 16.5 $ 17.6 $ 18.6
75.0 23.2 24.8 26.4 28.0
100.0 31.0 33.1 35.2 37.3
Synergies Value Per Minority Share
Terminal Multiple
$ 1.00 10.0 x 11.0 x 12.0 x 13.0 x
50.0 % $ 0.42 $ 0.45 $ 0.47 $ 0.50
75.0 0.63 0.67 0.71 0.75
100.0 0.84 0.89 0.95 1.01
Premium to Undisturbed Share Price¹
Terminal Multiple
6.5 % 10.0 x 11.0 x 12.0 x 13.0 x
50.0 % 2.7 % 2.9 % 3.1 % 3.3 %
75.0 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.9
100.0 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.5
%
Synergies
Realized
%
Synergies
Realized
%
Synergies
Realized
Source: Management estimates
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PV of implied value per minority share calculated as a % of undisturbed share price of $15.20 (17-Jul-2007). |
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Comparison of Selected Buyouts by Significant Existing
Shareholders Financial Institutions
($ in millions, except per share data)
Final
Aggregate 52 Wk High Premium Over Premium to Inside
Date Effective Acquiring Company/ Consideration Prior to 1-Week Avg Over 52- Initial Undisturbed Ownership Forward
of Ann. Date Acquired Company (mm) Ann. Prior to Ann. Week High Premium Stock Price Pre- Trans. P / E¹ P / B²
17-Jul-07 NA Alfa Mutual $ 815 $ 19.85 44.5 % 10.8 % 15.8 % 44.7 % 55.0 % 18.0 x 2.13 x
Alfa Corp
22-Feb-07 May-07 American Financial Group Inc $ 245 $ 23.96 14.0 % 2.3 % 8.6 % 13.2 % 81.0 % 15.3 x 1.07 x
Great American Finl Res Inc
24-Jan-07 May-07 AIG $ 813 $ 17.95 33.5 % 22.6 % 19.0 % 32.6 % 61.9 % 21.0 2.08
21st Century Insurance Co
20-Nov-06 Apr-07 Toronto-Dominion Bank $ 3,232 $ 32.18 5.9 % 0.5 % 6.5 % 6.5 % 54.6 % 15.2 0.89
TD Banknorth Inc
21-Mar-06 May-06 Erie Indemnity Co $ 75 $ 32.19 12.3 % (0.6)% 6.7 % 6.7 % 75.1 % NA 1.18
Erie Family Life Insurance Co
10-Oct-01 Nov-01 Toronto-Dominion Bank $ 403 $ 17.94 42.7 % (47.0)% 45.2 % 53.2 % 88.8 % NM 1.62
TD Waterhouse Group Inc
6-Jun-01 Dec-01 Liberty Mutual Insurance Co $ 536 $ 47.22 0.6 % (29.2)% 2.3 % 2.3 % 65.6 % 11.9 1.14
Liberty Financial Cos Inc
26-Mar-01 Aug-01 CSFB $ 110 $ 15.56 103.5 % (61.4)% 60.0 % 140.0 % 82.0 % NA NA
CSFBdirect
30-Aug-00 Jan-01 AXA SA $ 11,189 $ 52.31 8.0 % 4.4 % 2.4 % 4.6 % 60.0 % 18.5 3.80
AXA Financial Inc
27-Mar-00 Jun-00 Hartford Fin Svcs Group Inc $ 1,325 $ 55.00 25.5 % (8.2)% 3.4 % 18.6 % 80.4 % 13.3 2.87
Hartford Life(ITT Hartford)
21-Mar-00 Apr-00 Citigroup $ 2,449 $ 41.31 23.1 % 1.5 % 23.2 % 24.6 % 85.0 % 10.6 1.78
Travelers Prop. Casualty Corp
27-Oct-98 Dec-98 Allmerica Financial Corp $ 212 $ 34.62 16.6 % (4.0)% 5.2 % 20.6 % 82.0 % 16.6 1.27
Citizens Corp
Median 16.6 % (0.6)% 6.7 % 18.6 % 15.2 x 1.44 x
Final Multiples
Source: SEC filings, Thomson One, and SDC Financial
Note: Reflects FIG deals for U.S. targets.
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Based on IBES estimates at the time of announcement. |
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Based on book value for the latest quarter before announcement. |
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Comparison of Selected Buyouts by Significant Existing
Shareholders Insurance Companies
($ in millions, except per share data)
Final
Aggregate 52 Wk High Premium Over Premium to Inside
Date Effective Acquiring Company/ Consideration Prior to 1-Week Avg Over 52- Initial Undisturbed Ownership Forward
of Ann. Date Acquired Company (mm) Ann. Prior to Ann. Week High Premium Stock Price Pre- Trans. P / E¹ P / B²
17-Jul-07 NA Alfa Mutual $ 815 $ 19.85 44.5 % 10.8 % 15.8 % 44.7 % 55.0 % 18.0 x 2.13 x
Alfa Corp
22-Feb-07 May-07 American Financial Group Inc $ 245 $ 23.96 14.0 % 2.3 % 8.6 % 13.2 % 81.0 % 15.3 x 1.07 x
Great American Finl Res Inc
24-Jan-07 May-07 AIG $ 813 $ 17.95 33.5 % 22.6 % 19.0 % 32.6 % 61.9 % 21.0 2.08
21st Century Insurance Co
21-Mar-06 May-06 Erie Indemnity Co $ 75 $ 32.19 12.3 % (0.6)% 6.7 % 6.7 % 75.1 % NA 1.18
Erie Family Life Insurance Co
6-Jun-01 Dec-01 Liberty Mutual Insurance Co $ 536 $ 47.22 0.6 % (29.2)% 2.3 % 2.3 % 65.6 % 11.9 1.14
Liberty Financial Cos Inc
30-Aug-00 Jan-01 AXA SA $ 11,189 $ 52.31 8.0 % 4.4 % 2.4 % 4.6 % 60.0 % 18.5 3.80
AXA Financial Inc
27-Mar-00 Jun-00 Hartford Fin Svcs Group Inc $ 1,325 $ 55.00 25.5 % (8.2)% 3.4 % 18.6 % 80.4 % 13.3 2.87
Hartford Life(ITT Hartford)
21-Mar-00 Apr-00 Citigroup $ 2,449 $ 41.31 23.1 % 1.5 % 23.2 % 24.6 % 85.0 % 10.6 1.78
Travelers Prop. Casualty Corp
27-Oct-98 Dec-98 Allmerica Financial Corp $ 212 $ 34.62 16.6 % (4.0)% 5.2 % 20.6 % 82.0 % 16.6 1.27
Citizens Corp
Median 15.3 % 0.5 % 5.9 % 15.9 % 15.3 x 1.52 x
Final Multiples
Source: SEC filings, Thomson One, and SDC Financial
Note: Reflects FIG deals for U.S. targets.
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Based on IBES estimates at the time of announcement. |
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Based on book value for the latest quarter before announcement. |
ROLLTIDE\Presentation to Alfa Board Nov 04, 2007\Discussion Materials vFINAL.doc cmwill 4 Nov 2007 0:36 10/15
Dividend Discount Model Assumptions 10
Appendix A: Dividend Discount Model Assumptions
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Dividend Discount Model Assumptions 11
Dividend Discount Analysis
Based on Management Projections
($ in millions)
Alfa Corp. dividends based on management estimates from 2007 to 2011
Management has indicated a high degree of confidence in 2007-2008 estimates based on
implementation of rate increases in Homeowners, current competitive environment in Auto and
current investment environment
Year 2009-11 projections are based on momentum plan assuming current market conditions
which may change significantly over this period
Illustrative value calculated on a present value basis as of 30-Jun-2007
Ongoing dividends/cash flows from P&C operations calculated based on targeted 1.4x
NPW/surplus ratio; dividends are further limited to greater than test of the larger of (1) previous
years statutory net income or (2) 10% of prior years statutory surplus
P&C Terminal Value calculated based on an assumed perpetuity growth rate and discount rate
Discount rate based on CAPM assuming 10-year Treasury yield of 4.3%, equity risk premium of
4.9% (based on Morningstar analysis from 1970-2005) and Alfas equity Beta based on either a
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year historical Beta of 1.15 or a Barra projected Beta of 0.73 |
Life business valuation based on 1.0x P/B terminal multiple in 2011E assuming no dividends
between 2007-2011
Source: Management estimates
ROLLTIDE\Presentation to Alfa Board Nov 04, 2007\Discussion Materials vFINAL.doc cmwill 4 Nov 2007 0:36 12/15
Current Trading Multiples 12
Appendix B: Current Trading Multiples
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Current Trading Multiples 13
Common Stock Comparison of P&C Insurers as of 11/02/07
($ in millions)
Market % of 52-Wk. P/E¹ 5 Year P/B (ex- Dividend Adj. Debt /
Company Cap. High 2007E 2008E Growth¹ AOCI) 2007E 2008E Yield Capital²
AlfaUndisturbed³ $ 15.20 $ 1,236 76.6 % 12.5 x 11.4 x NA 1.5 x 11.8 % 11.9 % 3.1 % 10.4 %
AlfaFinal Offer³ 22.00 1,807 110.8 18.0 16.5 NA 2.1 11.8 11.9 2.1 10.4
Alfa Peers
Allstate $51.25 $30,149 77.7 % 7.4 x 7.7 x 8.0 % 1.5 x 19.8 % 17.0 % 3.0 % 19.0 %
Mercury General 50.32 2,756 87.4 11.3 11.7 NA 1.6 14.1 12.7 4.1 6.9
Hanover 44.98 2,353 89.5 10.2 11.0 12.5 1.1 10.7 9.0 0.7 20.0
State Auto 26.30 1,093 74.8 11.0 10.2 9.0 1.3 12.0 11.7 2.3 12.3
Fbl Financial 38.16 1,024 90.7 12.5 11.7 10.0 1.1 8.9 8.5 1.3 0.6
Harleysville 31.06 960 83.7 10.1 10.3 10.0 1.3 13.1 12.0 3.2 14.1
Infinity P&C 38.92 759 70.8 10.2 10.8 10.0 1.1 10.7 9.3 0.9 22.4
Horace Mann 16.35 708 72.4 8.4 8.6 NA 1.0 12.4 11.0 2.6 22.5
Safety Insurance 35.12 573 65.1 6.3 7.0 15.0 1.1 17.2 13.8 4.6 0.0
Donegal 16.30 488 80.6 11.1 10.6 10.0 1.5 13.6 13.2 2.2 79.4
HighAlfa Peers 90.7 % 12.5 x 11.7 x 15.0 % 1.6 x 19.8 % 17.0 % 4.6 % 79.4 %
LowAlfa Peers 65.1 6.3 7.0 8.0 1.0 8.9 8.5 0.7 0.0
MedianAlfa Peers 79.2 10.2 10.4 10.0 1.2 12.7 11.8 2.4 16.6
Other Personal Lines
Travelers Company $52.42 $ 34,951 92.4 % 7.9 x 8.6 x 9.1 % 1.4 x 17.1 % 14.1 % 2.2 % 21.0 %
Chubb 51.37 20,405 91.9 8.2 8.7 9.3 1.5 17.8 15.0 2.3 23.3
Progressive4 18.21 13,316 73.7 11.5 12.9 7.3 2.7 19.8 17.4 0.0 30.8
Safeco 56.66 5,827 82.2 8.9 9.1 10.0 1.6 17.9 15.8 2.8 16.3
Erie Indemnity 53.09 3,351 86.6 15.4 16.7 NA 2.8 18.4 15.7 3.0 0.0
United Fire & Casualty 30.14 834 70.7 8.0 9.7 NA 1.3 16.4 12.0 1.8 0.0
HighOther Personal Lines 92.4 % 15.4 x 16.7 x 10.0 % 2.8 x 19.8 % 17.4 % 3.0 % 30.8 %
LowOther Personal Lines 70.7 7.9 8.6 7.3 1.3 16.4 12.0 0.0 % 0.0
MedianOther Personal Lines 84.4 8.5 9.4 9.2 1.6 17.9 15.3 2.2 18.7
HighAll Companies 92.4 % 15.4 x 16.7 x 15.0 % 2.8 x 19.8 % 17.4 % 4.6 % 79.4 %
LowAll Companies 65.1 6.3 7.0 7.3 1.0 8.9 8.5 0.0 % 0.0
MedianAll Companies 81.4 10.1 10.2 10.0 1.4 15.3 13.0 2.3 17.6
ROACE
Note: Financial data as of 30-Jun-2007. Alfa earnings estimates as of 17-July-2007. Market data for Alfa Peers and Other Personal Lines as of 02-Nov-2007.
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All EPS estimates have been calendarized and are based on IBES median estimates. |
2 Assumes the following equity credit weightings: mandatory convertibles75%; perpetual preferreds50%; trust preferred stock and contingent convertibles0%.
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Alfas commercial paper is excluded from its Debt / Capital calculation. |
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Dividend yield excludes special dividend. |