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Ashoka WhiteOak Emerging Markets Trust plc Annual Report and Audited Financial Statements for the period ended 31 March 2024
the previously weak cross border flows in 2023. Global
headline inflation is expected to fall from an estimated
6.8% in 2023 (annual average) to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4%
in 2025. The drivers of declining inflation differ by country
but generally reflect lower core inflation due to still-tight
monetary policies and relative softening across labour
markets. This should allow most central banks to move
progressively to an easier monetary policy stance.
India’s economy delivered solid, above expectation GDP
growth of 8.2% for the fiscal year ending March 2024.
Its healthy macro-economic fundamentals, resilient
corporate earnings as well as promising growth prospects
continue to garner strong FDI as well as portfolio flows.
A moderating inflation trajectory and benign current
account deficit opens up room for RBI monetary easing.
Fiscal policy will remain in consolidation mode, driven by
a pickup in tax revenues and improved rationalisation of
government outlays even as capex spending will likely
remain robust. The imminent initial inclusion of Indian
government bonds into the JP Morgan Bond index will
also be supportive of local debt markets.
India’s diverse corporate sectors and generally
improving ROE suggests it will remain one of the best
EM equity markets within which to capture sustained
outperformance. Also noteworthy has been the
corporate deleveraging and cleaning up of banks’
balance sheets with a marked decline in non-performing
loans. This in turn has kickstarted a robust recovery in
private sector credit and capex underpinning stronger
economic growth and profits, further enhanced by
the government’s extensive infrastructure investment
upgrade. ‘Made in India’ is still in its very early stages,
but the likes of Apple and Samsung are expanding
local production with India clearly one of the major
beneficiaries of global supply chain reconfiguration.
Furthermore, the value of India’s IT exports recently
exceeded its oil import bill providing a cushion to the
external sector. Moreover, unlike China, India’s economy
is much more consumption than investment driven,
and the thrust of policymaking in recent years has been
towards capacity building which is likely to ensure that
economic growth is sustainable and broad-based and
not propelled by a rise in leverage.
China’s economy has been grappling with persistent
deflationary pressures, exacerbated by its property
crisis and stubbornly weak domestic demand. Over
the past three years, policy uncertainty, muted fiscal
stimulus and certain regulatory interventions have
weighed on investor confidence. US-China relations,
since the trade tensions began in 2018, have also
been one of the factors constraining equity returns
in China. While we are not influenced by strong ‘top-
down’ macroeconomic views on China, we do expect
domestic sentiment to improve gradually, driven by
more proactively supportive government policies and
stimulus, albeit the latter is likely to remain moderate
by historic standards. The government’s ongoing focus
on technology and innovation, manufacturing capacity
upgrades and decarbonisation should also underpin
economic growth. However, the private credit money
multiplier remains impaired and both households’ and
corporates’ animal spirits somewhat muted. Chinese
companies are, however, actively exploring commercial
opportunities abroad resulting in some potential new
revenue streams, assuming tariffs do not become more
of a challenge again post the US election.
Taiwan and Korea are significantly benefitting from the
AI boom given their semiconductor and technology
expertise whilst the recovery in global economic growth
and trade is an added boon.
Meanwhile, despite some unhelpful domestic political
interference, Brazil is poised to deliver a new positive
structural growth story supported by tax reform and
new financial inclusion policies which should raise
productivity and trend growth rates.
In summary, even though the global growth outlook has
improved over the last year, the Investment Manager is
still operating against the backdrop of a macroeconomic
environment characterised by challenges pertaining to
potential commodity price spikes amid geopolitical risks,
climate change, weather shocks, and faltering growth in
China together with potentially unpredictable policies
given the impending elections in many geographies.
However, the fundamentals of EM economies have
generally strengthened despite this challenging