
INVESTMENT MANAGER’S REPORT (CONTINUED)
Volta Finance Limited
Annual Report and Audited Financial Statements 2025
5
1.
Macro views (continued)
However, by May 2025, the economy faced mounting pressure from a blanket 10% tariff on all imports, driving up input costs and
inflation. Jobless claims rose to 247,000, the highest in eight months, prompting the OECD to revise its US growth forecast for 2025
down to 1.6% from 2.8%.
Despite these headwinds, the US attracted significant foreign investment, with the United Arab Emirates pledging $1.4 trillion and
Saudi Arabia $600 billion over the next decade. These inflows have been marketed by President Trump as key supports for the US
infrastructure development and job creation. Meanwhile, the administration launched a new term with aggressive trade policies,
imposing global tariff hikes and especially on partners such as Canada, Mexico, China and Europe. Legal challenges followed,
including federal court rulings against certain tariffs, though many remained in place pending appeal. The administration also
promoted its “One Big Beautiful Bill”, a sweeping economic package combining tax incentives, infrastructure funding and
manufacturing subsidies aimed at revitalizing domestic industry.
In Europe, the economic picture was more subdued. The eurozone recorded zero growth in Q4 2024, with annual GDP rising just
0.7%. National disparities were evident: Germany and France slowed, while Spain and Italy saw modest employment gains. The
manufacturing sector remained weak, with PMI indices stuck around 45, signalling contraction. In response, the ECB cut interest
rates by 25 bps in January 2025 and again in June 2025, bringing the benchmark rate to 2%. Inflation fell to 1.9%, prompting ECB
President, Christine Lagarde, to suggest the easing cycle may be nearing its end unless conditions deteriorate further.
July 2025 brought cautious optimism. US equity markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 surpassing 6,300 and the NASDAQ topping
21,000, erasing losses from earlier tariff shocks. The IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.0% for 2025, citing front-loading of
trade activity and lower effective tariff rates. The Fed maintained its rate range at 4.25–4.50%, despite internal divisions and pressure
from President Trump to cut rates. The June 2025 Consumer Price Index report showed a 0.3% monthly increase, reinforcing the
Fed’s cautious stance amid conflicting signals from inflation and labour markets.
In Europe, business activity showed modest expansion in July 2025, with the composite PMI rising to 50.9, the highest in nearly a
year. Growth was driven by services in Italy, Spain and Germany, while export sales remained weak. Inflation held steady at 2%,
aligning with ECB targets. The ECB paused further rate cuts and markets priced in no additional easing for the year.
A key development was the EU’s trade agreement with the US, capping tariffs on most European exports at 15% and averting a
threatened 30% hike. This deal provided stability for European exporters and eased some of the uncertainty surrounding global trade.
Overall, the global economy remains in a delicate balance, shaped by divergent monetary paths, protectionist trade policies and
geopolitical shifts. While the US leans into fiscal stimulus and aggressive trade tactics, Europe opts for cautious monetary easing and
diplomatic engagement. The coming months will test the resilience of these strategies amid ongoing inflation risks, legal battles and
structural challenges in major economies.
2.
Loan asset class review
The US and European leveraged loan markets experienced a dynamic and record-breaking period from late 2024 through mid-2025,
marked by surging issuance, aggressive repricing activity and shifting investor sentiment.
In the US, the leveraged loan market closed 2024 with $1.4 trillion in new-issue activity, including $398 billion in Q4 alone - just shy
of the all-time quarterly high. Demand from CLOs and retail investors triggered a wave of repricing. December 2024 saw $153 billion
in amendments to lower spreads, the busiest month ever for such activity. In total, $757 billion in loans were repriced in 2024,
shattering the previous record of $432 billion set in 2017. This led to significant spread compression and allowed borrowers to push
back maturity walls, reducing 2025 maturities by 84% and 2026 by 75%.
Europe mirrored this momentum, with institutional loan activity reaching €207 billion, surpassing the 2017 record. New institutional
deals hit €127.6 billion, exceeding the 2021 peak. Although total volumes excluding extensions and repricing were lower than in 2021,
the Morningstar European Leveraged Loan Index (“ELLI”) surpassed €300 billion for the first time. M&A loan activity doubled year-
over-year, contributing to net growth. Spreads tightened, particularly for B2-rated loans, and borrowers extended maturities into 2028.
The start of 2025 saw continued strength. In January 2025, the US leveraged loan index rose 0.69%, with $212 billion in new issuance
- $138 billion of which came from refinancings. Europe also saw strong performance, with the ELLI returning 0.99% and triple-C rated
loans posting their best monthly gain in two years at 3.47%. Refinancing activity surged to €9 billion, a record for January 2025 and
well above the decade-long monthly average.
The tariff announcement hit the loan market hard – in a similar fashion to other credit markets – as spreads widened sharply and
primary markets came to a halt. The volatility quickly reversed though and the month of May 2025 brought a sharp rebound in the
US market, with a 1.55% monthly return - the strongest since December 2023 - driven by easing trade tensions and rising consumer
confidence. Loan prices recovered from April 2025’s dip, with the average bid rising to 96.70. CCC-rated loans led gains at +2.98%.